According to Republicans since the labor force participation rate dropped it doesn't count, since unemployment doesn't account for how many people have dropped out of even looking for a job.

At least that's what they told me under Obama.

I could be wrong but I believe the figure is around 150k jobs that the US needs to add to make up for cyclical job loss. 78k jobs is still up, its just a pet peeve of mine that people take the number at face value

The US hot rolled steel prices mirrored europe prior to 2013 as the dumping got into full swing. The US put a 500%+ tariff on China and completely shut out the dumping to the point we take in an insignificant amount, while Britain got hammered. As I said in the previous post, the EU tariff only came after a 38% industry cut for crumpet munchers in a one year span. The US prices stayed stable through 2014 as we avoided direct Chinese imports, but then secondary markets collapsing in Canada / EU / etc tanked the US prices throughout 2015 and we dropped nearly as low as europe again. If europe lets its steel prices tank to chinese imports, the US gets dragged down with them. But when we start protecting our steel from both the Chinese dumpers and the secondary markets they poison, look at how steel prices in the US have completely broken away over the past 6 months. Notice how Europe is still pegged to chinese prices as they finally stopped overproducing and dumping subsidized steel that SEA no longer wanted.

it should also be noted that the american population is growing quite rapidly for an industrialized country, which means that they need a certain baseline of job growth just to keep the unemployment rate constant. iirc, the number was 300k additional jobs per year that the US needs just to break even.

This post was edited by Black XistenZ on Jun 1 2018 03:48pm

this is a really good graph for any person still confused about why tariffs raise the cost of anything made from steel in the US.

I'm now paying almost twice as much for basic steel that is higher quality than china steel. Good right? except i'm no where near strength tolerance in any application, so the extra strength/cost creates no more quality product at a might higher cost. which i in turn pass on to my customers, who are all raising the MSRP on good for all of you by a few cents per package to make up the difference.

This post was edited by thesnipa on Jun 1 2018 03:52pm

well this goes right to the heart of globalism and the shipping of jobs overseas to china. You can get cheaper products by having overproduction from cheap unregulated labor overseas, or you can pay more for the same thing at home.
In a healthy theoretical economy, the materials and products, the wages and inflation scale with each other as the overall wealth goes up. In the zero-sum model, the wages and costs both stay low because of the foreign competition and foreign overproduction, but the overall wealth goes up- its just going to the american and chinese elites who own the multinationals and labor and to the foreign laborers.

If our tariffs were skyrocketing prices without commensurate economic growth, that would lead to Paul Krugman's doomsday. But he drank that koolaid a little early on election day

This post was edited by Goomshill on Jun 1 2018 04:03pm

there are three* factors at play that need to be mentioned.

firstly, the production of "raw material" is always going to have a more widespread effect than a tariff on any end product. putting a big new price floor on steel and aluminium has wide reaching effects.

secondly, in the healthy theoretical economy jobs come back for every job taken from overseas. in reality this is causing increased production that jobs aren't keeping up with due to automation. and increased costs for firms is causing companies to automate faster. production comes back stateside but in this economy that doesn't equal jobs at an equal rate. so the increased costs of goods aren't made up for equally by jobs pumping money into the economy with wages to offset the price difference.

thirdly, economic growth is unsustainable at this pace from expectations alone. and deregulation hasn't filled the bubble in any meaningful way. when it goes pop cyclical labor will be laid off and the higher costs will remain.

This post was edited by thesnipa on Jun 1 2018 04:21pm

I'd add a fourth point: a high price pressure on domestic firms is spurring technological progress and an increased efficiency.

if american car manufacturers can get super-cheap chinese steel because the chinese pay fuckall wages and have no restraint in polluting their environment, then there is little incentive to invest into D&R on how to make american steel production more efficient.

pre-euro germany is an example of this phenomenom: since the DM was constantly appreciating against almost any other currency in the world, germany was under constant price pressure and had to constantly innovate to stay competitive. switzerland is another example for this effect.
nowadays, the euro, which is undervalued for germany's economy, is spurring our exports on its own and our companies and politics have become complacent, which will bite them/us germans in the ass in the next 10-20 years.
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about your second point: automation is a topic of its own. yes, we (the first world countries) will run into huge problems eventually without some sort of machine tax. reshipping jobs from overseas back to the domestic market is often used as an opportunity for a wave of automation and thus job loss, yes. but this effect is not an issue originating from/caused by tariffs - it's our indifference towards outsourcing and our inaction on automation coming back to bite us in the ass.

This post was edited by Black XistenZ on Jun 1 2018 05:01pm

Lol they ignoring you.

Of course they are, they haven't been given a talking point to handle it.

The labor participation rate hasn't recovered since it started dropping in 2008, and Trump hasn't done anything to fix what was, under Obama, A HUGE FUCKING NATIONAL CRISIS THAT THREATENS OUR ECONOMY!

This post was edited by Thor123422 on Jun 1 2018 05:05pm