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Jan 1 2020 12:39am
Quote (Thor123422 @ 1 Jan 2020 07:21)
Also Trump has basically no mechanism to actually affect change on that day. The spike at "Trump Elected Here" actually supports my idea, because day one Trump didn't even have appointments for his cabinet and so no way to actually affect material change. When the economy turns around on the day of an election it's pretty good evidence that it was the election effecting the numbers, not the actual policies.

I think his tax cuts (which would have been done under any Republican president) should have kept us above the trend line but his trade war took the piss out of those gains.


Counterpoint: even when we're leaving the tax cuts aside, the markets could expect business-friendly and deregulatory policies from a Republican president, in contrast to the excessive red tape and attempts at a top-down control of the economy that one can expect out of a Democratic administration. Perhaps markets just like Republican economic policies more than those of the Democrats?

Gotta agree with the trade wars though. I still think they are justifiable from a strategic, long-term perspective, but on economic terms, Trump really shot himself in the foot with them and killed the momentum built by his tax bill.

This post was edited by Black XistenZ on Jan 1 2020 12:40am
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Jan 1 2020 12:42am
Quote (Black XistenZ @ Dec 31 2019 10:39pm)
Counterpoint: even when we're leaving the tax cuts aside, the markets could expect business-friendly and deregulatory policies from a Republican president, in contrast to the excessive red tape and attempts at a top-down control of the economy that one can expect out of a Democratic administration. Perhaps markets just like Republican economic policies more than those of the Democrats?

Gotta agree with the trade wars though. I still think they are justifiable from a strategic, long-term perspective, but on economic terms, Trump really shot himself in the foot with them and killed the momentum built by his tax bill.


Over the last 30 years the market has done better under D leadership.
Same with deficit
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Jan 1 2020 12:44am
Quote (Black XistenZ @ Jan 1 2020 12:39am)
Counterpoint: even when we're leaving the tax cuts aside, the markets could expect business-friendly and deregulatory policies from a Republican president, in contrast to the excessive red tape and attempts at a top-down control of the economy that one can expect out of a Democratic administration. Perhaps markets just like Republican economic policies more than those of the Democrats?

Gotta agree with the trade wars though. I still think they are justifiable from a strategic, long-term perspective, but on economic terms, Trump really shot himself in the foot with them after the momentum built by his tax bill.


In which case I can say the jump was too much for "they just like him".

The winners of industry are different depending on who wins. You aren't going to invest in windmills with Trump, and aren't gonna invest in mining with Hillary (by which I mean you aren't going to invest extra because you got a friendly person in office. Wind is still probably a good investment). I imagine plenty of people had a "Trump Plan" and "Hillary Plan".

A typical Democrat administration and Republican administration aren't as different as the partisanship would have you believe. Obama was definitely in the pocket of the big banks after all. He literally waited until the day after the statute of limitations for 2008 passed and made a speech saying "we should move forward, not look back" in regards to Wall-Street abuses. The difference is more in what specific industries they are cushy with, even though they have a lot of common industries as well.

And sure, maybe the jump was a little higher because a republican got at office.

This post was edited by Thor123422 on Jan 1 2020 12:50am
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Jan 1 2020 12:53am
Quote (theCrossbones @ 1 Jan 2020 07:42)
Over the last 30 years the market has done better under D leadership.
Same with deficit


Is this still true if you look at the last 40 years instead, i.e. including Reagan's presidency?
Ignoring the good economic decade we had under Reagan/HW Bush from 1980 to 1990 kinda distorts things.

Also keep in mind that GWB had really bad luck/timing with the economy. When he was elected, the bursting of the dotcom bubble was in full effect, and then, the big recession started hitting in 2007 at the tail end of his presidency - a recession built up by the deregulation of the financial markets which had been pursued by both Reagan and Clinton. If any of the 1991/2000/2007 recessions had occurred just a tiny few months earlier or later, this whole D/R economic comparison would look a lot different.
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Jan 1 2020 12:58am
Quote (Black XistenZ @ Jan 1 2020 12:53am)
Is this still true if you look at the last 40 years instead, i.e. including Reagan's presidency?
Ignoring the good economic decade we had under Reagan/HW Bush from 1980 to 1990 kinda distorts things.

Also keep in mind that GWB had really bad luck/timing with the economy. When he was elected, the bursting of the dotcom bubble was in full effect, and then, the big recession started hitting in 2007 at the tail end of his presidency - a recession built up by the deregulation of the financial markets which had been pursued by both Reagan and Clinton. If any of the 1991/2000/2007 recessions had occurred just a tiny few months earlier or later, this whole D/R economic comparison would look a lot different.


Reagan was the king of selling the country down the river long term for good short term numbers.

This post was edited by Thor123422 on Jan 1 2020 12:58am
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Jan 1 2020 01:22am
Quote (Black XistenZ @ Dec 31 2019 10:53pm)
Is this still true if you look at the last 40 years instead, i.e. including Reagan's presidency?
Ignoring the good economic decade we had under Reagan/HW Bush from 1980 to 1990 kinda distorts things.

Also keep in mind that GWB had really bad luck/timing with the economy. When he was elected, the bursting of the dotcom bubble was in full effect, and then, the big recession started hitting in 2007 at the tail end of his presidency - a recession built up by the deregulation of the financial markets which had been pursued by both Reagan and Clinton. If any of the 1991/2000/2007 recessions had occurred just a tiny few months earlier or later, this whole D/R economic comparison would look a lot different.


so when looking at trump you want to look at short term economy.
Looking at past R.. you want long term view.
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Jan 1 2020 02:30am
You Obama lovers never cease to amaze me.

https://www.washingtonexaminer.com/opinion/how-trump-rescued-the-economy-from-obamas-failed-policies

Remember when Obama said those jobs are never coming back, that Trump doesn't have a magic wand? The guy was President for 8 years and now that the economy is seeing a huge turnaround 3 years after he has been gone you guys still want to give him credit?? Fuck outta here.

This post was edited by ZeroOath on Jan 1 2020 02:31am
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Jan 1 2020 09:05am
Quote (Thor123422 @ 31 Dec 2019 23:12)
https://i.imgur.com/aq7JLzW.jpg

Less impressive in context.


Quote (Black XistenZ @ 1 Jan 2020 00:18)
1.: Wasnt the narrative that Hillary had a 90+% chance of winning? The prevailing narrative in liberal media and pundit circles was that Trump stood no realistic chance at all. Hence, in quantitative terms, there would not have been all that much uncertainty - unless the markets didnt buy into this narrative anyway. Really puts things into perspective if you think about it.

2.: Your own chart shows that the "flatlining" actually begun in early 2015. This stands in contrast to what you said previously (flatline during the year preceding the election, when it was actually almost 2 years)


Quote (Black XistenZ @ 1 Jan 2020 01:11)
No, it did not. Look, I highlighted it in your chart:

https://i.imgur.com/7MBoaKD.jpg

There were two short spikes to the bottom which the DOW recovered from within months, but other than that, it remained very steady from the beginning of 2015 right until Trump's election.


lmao!!!!!

poor thor a new decade still stuck on being wrong about everything
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Jan 1 2020 09:29am
Quote (theCrossbones @ Jan 1 2020 02:22am)
so when looking at trump you want to look at short term economy.
Looking at past R.. you want long term view.


Obama crippled the economy with bad policy. Obstructed health care, obstructed oil drilling, obstructed trade deals.if you still think he did a good job, then I feel bad for your finances in rl.

This post was edited by EndlessSky on Jan 1 2020 09:29am
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Jan 1 2020 09:32am
Quote (EndlessSky @ Jan 1 2020 10:29am)
Obama crippled the economy with bad policy. Obstructed health care, obstructed oil drilling, obstructed trade deals.if you still think he did a good job, then I feel bad for your finances in rl.


Lol. More proof that Obama was a good president when fractually wrong endlesssky condemns him.

If this isn't a ringing endorsement then I don't know what is.
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