I presume the EU approach is going to be exactly the same as with Bush tariffs. Target swing states and prominent party members. They're already working on tariffs on Bourbon (targeting McConnell) and Harley-Davidson (targeting Reid).

What I think is going to be different though is that I don't think Trump is going to fold like Bush did. So far we've seen that he prefers to escalate. Kinda curious to see what happens then.

The Euros will fold like a lawn chair. Your economy is too fragile and there are too many issues like Brexit, Italy, Visegrad, Ukraine, etc. that make Europe a lot more vulnerable. You've seen what's been happening lately in global financial markets, investors were dumping Italian bonds, Euro has been sliding down against the dollar & a lot of money flocking to US bonds.

People are too dependent on what politicians say and how they posture. Sure the Euros might impose some minimal tariffs just to say they did somethin but if they want to play hardball Drumpf can slap identical tariffs on industries that have a much stronger negative impact on EU exports.

he's saying the EU will impose ineffectual tarrifs that won't garner a strong response because of how ineffectual they are to the total economy. but they will be effective regionally on senators/congressmen who represent districts that will be adversely effected.

you think Trump will do what exactly? put a massive tariff on the entire EU in response to a bourbon tariff that only effects one district and is a blip on the radar for the economy as a whole?

Probably not, and the idea that putting tariffs on a few inconsequential imports like Harleys or Bourbon is going to change the overall tone of trumps policies on trade is unlikely either.

I think there's a bigger risk to senators if they break rank with Trump rather than the few constituents crying about Bourbon or Harley tariffs.

It worked with the Bush tariffs.After succesfull appeal at the WTO (with 2 bil in sanctions), the EU countered with threats on sanctions targeted for Michigan (cars) and Florida (oranges). Bush caved.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2003/dec/04/usa.wto1



Targeting key states/positions does seem to be a weakness in the US political system.

I think BMW will poison Merkel's streudel before they let the trade war escalate into Trump slapping a targeted tariff on auto imports.
Its not like the EU is invulnerable to the same tactic, Trump's been sabre rattling about it for some time and is again today.

I agree but Trump is a different animal. The Cheeto has no problem weaponizing his followers. One tweet about how this senator broke rank and is caving to the Euros is enough to make that republican unelectable again.

EU USA commercial war will only make losers. Do not expect US will lose less than EU...

The EU is not invulnerable to the same tactic, but the power balance isn't as concentrated, as we don't have the same political system. The system of the EU is way less transparent and has way more layers. And of course there are heavy reliances both ways. But we didn't fire first in this battle. And the EU can't let this go without any retaliation.



Like I said, I don't think Trump is going to react as Bush did. But the EU seems to be more principled on these things, with a more long-term vision than most US politicians can afford. And yes, the targeting of Trump-leaning regions can backfire. We've seen that those regions have (mostly) backed him even though they haven't benefited as much as was promised. But the risk is high, for both sides.



This post was edited by balrog66 on May 31 2018 02:06pm

could the cultists please remind me how starting a trade war with europe is a net gain for american consumers and workers?