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Jun 12 2018 01:44pm
Quote (IceMage @ Jun 12 2018 01:39pm)
You have to wonder what North Korean rhetoric is going to look like from now on. All it would take for Trump to start tweeting threats again is for a high up official to start talking shit like they normally do.


I've not heard of any tweets so far, so I'm still giving this as a small victory for Trump.

Let's hope it holds, but I'm not too hopeful considering Trump's history.

But then again, he loves bullies, so he might not tweet shit about Kim.
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Jun 12 2018 01:44pm
Quote (Ghot @ Jun 12 2018 02:39pm)
Yeah, IF the denuking actually takes place.
My guess would be they will just move it all to Japan. Or maybe Taiwan. <--- That would piss China off.


The US absolutely can not completely leave the area around the China Sea, the South China Sea. If we did, China would roll over all those little countries and Japan.


The US has bases in Japan already. China would be pretty foolish to try to "roll over Japan" with a US presence there.
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Jun 12 2018 01:45pm
Quote (IceMage @ 12 Jun 2018 21:39)
You have to wonder what North Korean rhetoric is going to look like from now on. All it would take for Trump to start tweeting threats again is for a high up official to start talking shit like they normally do.


Why would though? They got what they always wanted: a guarantee that the Americans cant just come in and overthrow their regime. Previously, before they had nukes, they benefitted from delaying tactics. Not anymore. Now, they want concessions, they want a lift on the sanctions, they more foreign money and products coming into the country. Unliike in pre-nuke-times, knocking everything they had built up down again by trash-talking wouldnt benefit them anymore.
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Jun 12 2018 01:47pm
Quote (Surfpunk @ Jun 12 2018 01:44pm)
The US has bases in Japan already. China would be pretty foolish to try to "roll over Japan" with a US presence there.


not to mention getting booted off of every notable council, trading agreement, etc they're in. Russia took major shit for rolling onto Ukraine. China's war is predominantly economic, so i'd like to say Ghot is suggesting an economic war but my god i can't think that dumb if i try.

Quote (Black XistenZ @ Jun 12 2018 01:45pm)
Why would though? They got what they always wanted: a guarantee that the Americans cant just come in and overthrow their regime. Previously, before they had nukes, they benefitted from delaying tactics. Not anymore. Now, they want concessions, they want a lift on the sanctions, they more foreign money and products coming into the country. Unliike in pre-nuke-times, knocking everything they had built up down again by trash-talking wouldnt benefit them anymore.


how many time would you guess since the start of the nuclear program that the DPPK has promised to disband the program, gotten concessions, and then restarted the program?

This post was edited by thesnipa on Jun 12 2018 01:49pm
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Jun 12 2018 01:48pm
Quote (IceMage @ Jun 12 2018 12:39pm)
You have to wonder what North Korean rhetoric is going to look like from now on. All it would take for Trump to start tweeting threats again is for a high up official to start talking shit like they normally do.


Trump looks at his phone
He sees Twitter
He remembers those short orgasmic moments from every tweet

Hello darkness my old friend
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Jun 12 2018 01:49pm
It's difficult to see what will come out of the summit yet. I'm cautiously optimistic, but the joint statement released by Trump and Kim is pretty vague.

On one hand, it's a historic opportunity for the United States to potentially begin to denuclearize North Korea.

On the other hand, it's potentially giving legitimacy to a brutal North Korean regime who has no honest intention to denuclearize. It seems unnecessary and counter-intuitive for Trump to lavish this much praise toward Kim.

Politically speaking, it's hard to know for certain what can or cannot be attributed to Trump himself, but you have to give him some credit for getting this far, I think.

That said, if North Korea makes no honest efforts to denuclearize, today could be a loss for world peace and the United States. We could be giving up a military presence on the peninsula for nothing.


Tl;dr: Nearly impossible to know the outcome of this summit yet. Joint statement was vague and unspecific.
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Jun 12 2018 01:53pm
Quote (ThatAlex @ Jun 12 2018 01:49pm)
It's difficult to see what will come out of the summit yet. I'm cautiously optimistic, but the joint statement released by Trump and Kim is pretty vague.

On one hand, it's a historic opportunity for the United States to potentially begin to denuclearize North Korea.

On the other hand, it's potentially giving legitimacy to a brutal North Korean regime who has no honest intention to denuclearize. It seems unnecessary and counter-intuitive for Trump to lavish this much praise toward Kim.

Politically speaking, it's hard to know for certain what can or cannot be attributed to Trump himself, but you have to give him some credit for getting this far, I think.

That said, if North Korea makes no honest efforts to denuclearize, today could be a loss for world peace and the United States. We could be giving up a military presence on the peninsula for nothing.


Tl;dr: Nearly impossible to know the outcome of this summit yet. Joint statement was vague and unspecific.


even in the most pessimistic perspective where trump is a dangerous wildman speaking too rashly his rhetoric has had an effect on making the meeting happen.

the only real possibility where trump had literally zero effect is that the regime utterly failed in their nuclear program, all the equipment was lost, and they're unable to buy/make new equipment, and dont want to be exposed. but they'd likely try to saber rattle to buy some time if that was the case, unless the mountain failed longer ago than we got reported.

This post was edited by thesnipa on Jun 12 2018 01:54pm
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Jun 12 2018 01:55pm
Quote (Surfpunk @ Jun 12 2018 03:44pm)
The US has bases in Japan already. China would be pretty foolish to try to "roll over Japan" with a US presence there.




Yeah, I know. I meant they would just move the 28K troops there.
They need to be close by. China does have serious designs on the South China Sea, and anyone that opposes them.

There is also a big brouhaha building with Taiwan as well. China could overrun Taiwan before we could get troops there, unless they were close.
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Jun 12 2018 01:56pm
Quote (thesnipa @ Jun 12 2018 01:47pm)
not to mention getting booted off of every notable council, trading agreement, etc they're in. Russia took major shit for rolling onto Ukraine. China's war is predominantly economic, so i'd like to say Ghot is suggesting an economic war but my god i can't think that dumb if i try.



how many time would you guess since the start of the nuclear program that the DPPK has promised to disband the program, gotten concessions, and then restarted the program?


Quote (Ghot @ Jun 12 2018 01:55pm)
Yeah, I know. I meant they would just move the 28K troops there.
They need to be close by. China does have serious designs on the South China Sea, and anyone that opposes them.

There is also a big brouhaha building with Taiwan as well. China could overrun Taiwan before we could get troops there, unless they were close.


god damnit....
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Jun 12 2018 02:04pm
Quote (thesnipa @ Jun 12 2018 02:56pm)
god damnit....


LOL
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