Quote (ThatAlex @ Dec 25 2019 10:17pm)
Trump is a little better than even odds to win re-election. If the economy stays strong, I think he has 2020 in the bag. I don't even think this impeachment ordeal factors into the election much. Politics move so quickly in the Trump-era, and November is still 11 months away. We'll be talking about something else next month, and who knows what the focus will be come election time.
Biden has the next best odds at 5/1. I don't think he's a good pick. He's not particularly inspiring (same issue as the last Dem candidate), and Democrats needs to be inspired to turn out. He's got a lot of political baggage, and I think Trump would be able to play up the career politician/swamp thing too easily.
I think Biden and Warren would both get crushed. Sanders gives a slightly better shot at turning out young voters and voters in the Midwest, but he might perform slightly worse with Black voters. Same with Buttigieg.
My personal favorite candidate this cycle is probably Andrew Yang, but he doesn't have a real shot. It's encouraging to see him stick around and do better than expected because I really do think he has the best ideas for our country moving toward the future. My second favorite candidate is probably Buttigieg, followed by Sanders, then Warren, and then Biden. Their respective chances of the nomination are probably in reverse order from my preferences.
The chance of him committing another crime the next 11 months is very high and will be talking about that probly.
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