From a western POV, as long as this war continues and Russia bleeds and is weakened and hopefully exhausted then that is a net good. Whether Ukraine just loses Donetsk going forward or ends up losing 3 more oblasts behind it and 2 million - 3 million more or every adult male is of secondary importance.
In that sense, the west is winning. I do think to some extent that Russia is moving into pyrrhic victory territory. Sure they will end up with 20-25% maybe more of Ukraine but they would have paid a significant price for it in gold and lives. Even with a win i think they've strained themselves. But Russians have an unmatched tolerance for suffering so in the long term it's consistent with their history.
Personally i do not view this from a lens what's best for us in the US is good, we've discussed how in reality the focus should be on China and these side challenges incrementally actually weaken and exhaust us. As someone that was born in eastern Europe has been to Ukraine, is married to an Ukrainian has kids that have significant Ukrainian blood, what most bothers me is the little regard for the human lives. Not by the Russians but by the western backers that will fund this and push this year after year with no tangible benefit to Ukraine. Year after passing year, more dead, more destroyed cities, more left the country, more broken families, more Ukrainian women in Berlin brothels, more damage to the economy and infrastructure to a country that was already the poorest in Europe pre-war. So if that's the outcome at year end then why continue to push for conditions that will continue this? It could have been settled 3 years ago, it could have never started if we didn't fund and orchestrate a coup. I hope one day there's a reckoning for these people in halls of power that treat these lives like they were nothing. The same people that only care about profit and power at the expense of millions. If there's a God that day of reckoning will surely come, i just hope it doesn't touch the innocent in those countries whether it's Russia, US, UK & many others.
I mean that's exactly the problem I've said since the start, China is our only geopolitical rival and we're weakening our own world position while aligning the rest of the world against us. Obama ran for president on a promise of resetting relations with Russia in his 2nd term and making fun of Romney for being hostile to Russia. Yet here we are, bleeding our own economies, losing critical access to food and energy for the next few decades, while India and Russia and China are all working together economically and have now circumvented the petrodollar. Joe Biden couldn't have fucked this up more if he wanted to.
I'm not particularly concerned for Ukraine or its people or expats or their human lives. The world is a big place and I'm concerned for American interests, and I say this as someone who knows people involved in the Ukraine war on our side. Its easy to point out how this wasn't in the human interests of Ukrainians, how ultranationalists were driving them into a stupid conflict that would bring far more woe to the cossacks than if they had just continued being neglected by Russia. Frankly, all of that is for Ukrainians to figure out, not for us to say what's best for them. There are plenty of people suffering even more than Ukrainians are, like the Sudanese, and the global response hasn't been a massive deployment or mobilization, its just a collective 'fuck em, let them rot'.
We owe this war to the ultranationalists from the Maidan and their western backers who infiltrated western governments to push the agenda and get the CIA on board, the likes of Eric Ciaramella, trying to manipulate internal US politics to pursue their misguided geopolitical agenda. With no regard to our own interests. Well, it was patently obvious back then how profoundly stupid this was geopolitically and now everything we predicted has come to pass. We're giving Russia a hiccup to their economy while setting 70% of the world against us. Its not the cold war, Russia isn't our biggest enemy, their loss is not our gain. We've got people on reddit posting videos of Russians getting blown up by drones and cheering as if that somehow improves our lives.