Quote (Goomshill @ Mar 1 2022 12:47am)

And yet, when the US waggles around its control of the dollar like this and forces major players out of a dollar economy, especially for oil sales which anchor it, that's a massive impetus to accelerate other countries abandoning the dollar. I think you understate the sway of countries like Russia, Japan, Germany, India, etc. They still carry large geopolitical clout and Merkel's decisions (now Scholz's) still have a huge bearing in the winds behind the global economy. They're more than regional in an economy this connected. Its not just the USA and China as titans surrounded by a dozen midgets.

When the US puts up the Iron Curtain 2.0 and all the major banks and havens for oligarchs start seizing assets from one country, that strikes at the very heart of the dollar's stability. I've heard from day traders who thought the big hot shit was to buy real estate in China years ago and made bank as the values skyrocketed. Well, good short term investment no doubt. What happens if one day during a bitter international dispute, China decides to seize all America-owned real estate overnight. Well that's what the US and EU are talking about doing with Russia, and already started. Russian oligarchs will be in desperate mode for immediate measures, but every other country's movers and shakers will take notice and have a sudden awareness of their own mortality.

America losing the reserve currency status was always our biggest global economic threat and prophesized by every doomsayer. And this is precisely the kind of action that makes its a real near-term possibility. We're forcing a major world player into China's hands, giving every condition and motivation for a Yuan backing of gas and oil, cutting straight into the heart of the stability and legitimacy of the dollar. I think the threat to us is immediate. Even if it doesn't mean other countries than Russia embracing the Yuan immediately, what it could mean is that we've already set in motion the unstoppable process. We stepped on and activated the pressure plate in the ancient temple, its going to take a few years for the boulder trap to roll its way to us, but the ball is rolling now. India, China, the UAE, even Israel all refusing to back the US line in this conflict? Countries that want to keep trading. Countries that don't want to be at the mercy of American self-righteous jingoism

Quote (Goomshill @ Mar 1 2022 03:03am)

https://twitter.com/lillianmli/status/1498300182533787652
https://asiatimes.com/2022/02/china-can-break-swift-sanctions-but-at-a-high-cost/

Here comes the big test of these sanctions

SWIFT carries about $400 billion in transactions per day. China's CIPS does only about $50 billion. CIPS could be expanded and start handling all Russian foreign transactions as a replacement for SWIFT, its up to the Chinese
If they do, Russian oil and gas would start being purchased in RMB instead of USD.
That's a huge warning flag and should set off everyone's alarms. It spells the end of the American petrodollar.

What we could see if Russia and China linking together their financial systems and greatly empower the Yuan, while the Dollar no longer serves as the reserve currency of the world and isn't behind every oil transaction
America's only recourse would be to extend the sanctions placed on Russian entities to the Chinese entities doing business with them. It would be the same economic war waged on China as we're waging on Russia
We simply do not have that economic clout. Its not even a threat we can make, we can't stop this if they do it.


This was an eventuality that American foreign policy has been desperately resisting for decades. Cue all the grand conspiracy claims over the invasion of Libya and Gaddafi's desire to establish an arab petrocurrency. We are really on the verge of forcing this economic suicide option. We've sanctioned virtually everything about Russia "except gas and oil" because of the mutual need. But without normal purchasing powers and western agencies seizing Russian assets and basically banning access to dollar-based markets, we're giving Russia no choice but to turn to the Yuan. And once oil and gas start being traded in the yuan worldwide, America has ended its era of geopolitical dominance, its game over.

Quote (dro94 @ Mar 1 2022 01:20am)

You do realise the Russian economy is about the size of Canada's, right. An alliance with Russia doesn't spell tbe end of shit

Quote (Ognadibik @ Mar 1 2022 04:47am)

"The US has solid intelligence that Putin is frustrated and expressing unusual bursts of anger at people in his inner circle over the state of the military campaign so far and the worldwide condemnation of his actions," according to 2 current US officials.

Quote (Goomshill @ Mar 1 2022 06:17am)

https://twitter.com/maxseddon/status/1498615475726651396

In response to western governments freezing and debating seizing Russian investments, Russia is retaliating by "temporarily" banning western companies from exiting their investments in russia. Not exactly freezing them or seizing them. Temporary instead of indefinite, even though they are synonymous in effect.
That's another pretty big step in all the various announcements of the economic iron curtain being thrown up so rapidly.

a lot of companies trying to divest from Russia won't be able to do so in any Russian markets. They're still not talking about seizing western assets or freezing western accounts, and the latter would be a less relevant threat. But now any money they invested in russia is stuck invested in russia

Quote (Goomshill @ Mar 1 2022 07:34am)

Its twice the size of canadas, and if canada suddenly started trading RMB we'd have a major problem on our hands.
The biggest energy producers in the world are the USA, Russia and KSA all fairly neck and neck, China and Canada behind them, with the USA and Russia producing gas. The US dollar is anchored by being the petrocurrency of the world, so Russia (and funnily enough Canada for that comparison) has an outsize effect on the US dollar

Quote (Ognadibik @ Mar 1 2022 09:47am)

"The US has solid intelligence that Putin is frustrated and expressing unusual bursts of anger at people in his inner circle over the state of the military campaign so far and the worldwide condemnation of his actions," according to 2 current US officials.

Quote (dro94 @ 1 Mar 2022 08:13)

https://twitter.com/dkaleniuk/status/1498627001141403648

Now it's becoming a mainstream viewpoint to operate a no-fly zone over Ukraine, with news and social media lapping it up. The stakes are way too high to even consider this approach



Not in nominal GDP, and it won't be in PPP either considering 1.6tr of imports just got 30% more expensive



Usually I'd take this with a pinch of salt, but Western intelligence has been abnormally accurate so far in this conflict. We must have tapped up someone close to Putin

Quote (Ognadibik @ Mar 1 2022 04:47am)

"The US has solid intelligence that Putin is frustrated and expressing unusual bursts of anger at people in his inner circle over the state of the military campaign so far and the worldwide condemnation of his actions," according to 2 current US officials.

Quote (chopstickz777 @ Jan 23 2022 05:07pm)

Seriously? Who is dumb enough to believe this tripe these days?

gee, where have I heard that before?
Fact is, Russia ain't invading squat and this is just another case of the paranoid genocidal homicidal fascists in DC drumming up yet another unnecessary war while pretending that it is their victims which are the unholy, evil aggressors.