Voting demographics change and can change quickly. I’m not gonna pretend that some democrats aren’t currently happy with the demographics shift. But it actually hasn’t helped dems. In fact the shift in the Latino vote this last election cycle undeniably helped R’s.
You and
are both mixing up two different aspects of margins. Of course it was helpful for Republicans that they lost Hispanics by only 5% in 2024 instead of the 32% by which they lost them in 2020. Nonetheless, the presence of this D+5 demographic was still helpful for Democrats; the Republican margins would have been even higher without Hispanic voters in the electorate.
The last election was won when the vote split along white/black lines the same as previous cycles, but the hispanic and arab voters heavily shifted and gave a huge boost to Trump.
The bigger story of the 2024 election is actually that the white share of the electorate went up 4 points, from 67% in 2020 to 71% in 2024. For decades, the composition of the electorate had followed that of the overall population and gotten less and less white each cycle. 2024 was the first time in god knows how long when this trend was reversed. And while white voters were actually the only ethnic group which trended (marginally) toward Democrats in 2024, it was still a group which Trump won by a large margin, so this shift in the ethnic makeup of the electorate also gave Trump a big boost.
The story of the Trump-era elections is basically as follows:
2016: both candidates are historically unpopular, interest and overall turnout are anemic, but Trump trades suburban for rural voters, which narrowly carries the day for him in the EC.
2020: turnout is supercharged on both sides, but even more so among college-educated whites who are stampeding away from Trump. Rural turnout falls off from 2016, which allows Biden to carry states like GA or PA.
2024: super high turnout from both Trump's rural white base and from Democrats' new, college-white base, but non-white America is far less energized, allowing Trump to win the popular vote. Tldr: Harris is no Obama.
This post was edited by Black XistenZ on Oct 15 2025 08:22pm