https://twitter.com/lillianmli/status/1498300182533787652https://asiatimes.com/2022/02/china-can-break-swift-sanctions-but-at-a-high-cost/Here comes the big test of these sanctions
SWIFT carries about $400 billion in transactions per day. China's CIPS does only about $50 billion. CIPS could be expanded and start handling all Russian foreign transactions as a replacement for SWIFT, its up to the Chinese
If they do, Russian oil and gas would start being purchased in RMB instead of USD.
That's a huge warning flag and should set off everyone's alarms. It spells the end of the American petrodollar.
What we could see if Russia and China linking together their financial systems and greatly empower the Yuan, while the Dollar no longer serves as the reserve currency of the world and isn't behind every oil transaction
America's only recourse would be to extend the sanctions placed on Russian entities to the Chinese entities doing business with them. It would be the same economic war waged on China as we're waging on Russia
We simply do not have that economic clout. Its not even a threat we can make, we can't stop this if they do it.
This was an eventuality that American foreign policy has been desperately resisting for decades. Cue all the grand conspiracy claims over the invasion of Libya and Gaddafi's desire to establish an arab petrocurrency. We are really on the verge of forcing this economic suicide option. We've sanctioned virtually everything about Russia "except gas and oil" because of the mutual need. But without normal purchasing powers and western agencies seizing Russian assets and basically banning access to dollar-based markets, we're giving Russia no choice but to turn to the Yuan. And once oil and gas start being traded in the yuan worldwide, America has ended its era of geopolitical dominance, its game over.