Quote (ThatAlex @ Nov 12 2016 01:04am)
She was the favorite, but the polls were wrong. How were they correct? The predicted about a 3.2 point Clinton win nationally and she only won by about 0.2 points.
Additionally, the polls had her ahead in states like Florida, Michigan, and Pennsylvania, all states she lost. The polls were incorrect, no?
If I'm playing Hold 'em heads-up and I have pocket Aces and my opponent has 7 2 offsuit, is it wrong that I all-in even if he gets a full house from the community?
The correctness of a probabilistic claim is not based on the outcome, it is based on the likelihood of the outcome given the information that is available. If you're interested in this kind of stuff, Bayesian probability is one of the most important and useful things I've ever learned.
I should correct myself, I'm not necessarily saying the polls were correct, they may not have been, I'm just saying that just because the outcome was in favor of the underdog doesn't mean they were wrong. Just because the guy with a 30% chance of winning won doesn't mean he only had a 30% chance of winning. 30% isn't that unlikely.
This post was edited by Voyaging on Nov 12 2016 12:22am