Quote (WidowMaKer_MK @ Oct 15 2014 09:27am)
...Obama is being perceived as incapable of managing the Ebola crisis just in time for the midterm elections . Don't be surprised if this is the issue that secures Republican victory .
LOLNO.
That said, some updates to the ranges:
House:
D+0 - R+7 -
[Shift: ->] (CA-07, CO-06, VA-10)
Senate:
R+2 - R+8 -
[Shift: ->] (IA-SEN, CO-SEN)
Governors:
D/I +6 - R+1House: The general trend here is that the Democrats are shifting money from some of their pickup opportunities to some of their second-tier incumbents, essentially trying to build a firewall that'll result in a net Republican gain of 5 seats or so on Election Day but that will create entrenched Democratic incumbents for future cycles. Seats like CO-06, MI-01, NE-02, NJ-03, and VA-10 that are currently Republican-held that the Democrats hoped to narrowly win this year can now be expected to be narrowly won by the Republicans, leaving Democrats to try to target them in 2016 instead if they predictably come up 2-5 points short this year.
Senate: This just reflects the shift in Colorado and Iowa from Democratic-tilting toss-up races to pure tossup races. Previously one had to assume a Democratic edge in Colorado that would be exhibited in the new vote-by-mail system and the persistent failure of state polling to account for Democratic-leaning constituencies like Hispanic/Latinos and college students, but a narrow polling lead for Gardner means that neither he nor Udall really has an advantage. The polling has moved towards Braley in Iowa but that's almost entirely the result of more-accurate surveys from the Register and Quinnipiac replacing previous outliers which showed absurd 6-point leads for Ernst. There's no advantage for anyone here, either, but there might be in a week or so if a clear picture can be ascertained from early voting that's already underway.
Governors: No shift here, just some tightening that pushes the likely outcome toward the center of the range. Republican-held seats in Wisconsin, Michigan, and Florida are getting more competitive (read: a slightly higher likelihood of a Democratic win in each than previously) just as Democratic-held seats in Massachusetts and Colorado are on the other side. The Independent-led fusion ticket in Alaska still looks primed to score a pickup, which will cost the GOP a seat. The GOP looks poised to scrap by in Arizona to hold what should be a safe seat, while the Democrats are trying to do the same in Hawaii, Connecticut, and Illinois.