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May 23 2011 02:42pm
Quote (darkfire @ 23 May 2011 15:22)
Since there are people posting here who claim to have some background in the field, can someone link me to a research level paper with a decent statistical methodology section?  If the actual reported results of these tests are based entirely on CLT normal approximations with nothing else, I'm going to have to rethink my confidence in carbon dating.  At the very least, I would hope they do some nonparametric estimation to test the assumptions of the model and some kind of moment test to make sure the CLT approximations are valid.

Paul, I don't think your criticisms of the statistics here are particularly valid assuming everyone is doing their jobs.  We've gotten fairly good at identifying flaws in model assumptions by using tools that don't depend on any assumptions (other than that some unknown probability distribution is in the background).  If they did their work well, even small sample confidence intervals would be more than accurate enough to rule out any serious problems.  There is a bound on the maximum possible error from the CLT approximations that people use to justify sample sizes of 30 or more being fairly good estimates.  As to your criticisms about the constancy of parameters, again given the amount of data I assume they have collected, they could use nonparametrics (much stronger than CLT in terms of assumptions, but weaker in the convergence rate) to test whether or not the parameter values might have changed significantly over time.  Again, I don't know anything about the empirical methodology, but in terms of the tests we're good at identifying those kinds of problems.

Fair warning, I don't know anything about/couldn't care less about anthropology.


I was hoping you would join in, you're a huge numbers guy, so your input is most appreciated.

Couple things to note: The assumptions of starting parameters and constancies over time is only one of the problems. Even if you had a million numbers that all did the same pattern (such as maybe 1000 years ago the half-life rate tripled and quadrupled for a few years), then you would expect a constant across all things, and not be able to determine a flaw in the dating from the results, because everything would be +/- that amount (that was that age or older). Potentially flawed formulas or assumptions always resulted in the same potentially flawed answers, whether it's 1 test, or a million.

But yes, the process by which these assessments are made is by the predetermined age, which is used to benchmark the end results, and discard anomalous results. I cannot definitively state that at this very second in time, that is how they are done (they may change their process at any moment, which is a great thing about science!), but as of college courses being taught regarding this very subject, this is part of the process by which samples are submitted, tested, and results returned. This is especially true for fossils, which the predetermined date is often determined by the rock layer it was found in. This is a problem, because the rock layers were defined by the fossils that occurred in them, creating a sort of circular logic. This is not always the case, of course, but does serve as but one example. Incidentally, afaik, no dating techniques work accurately on the rock layers themselves. Here is a quick link I found on the subject, but I encourage you to do your own studies on it further, and not implicitly trust internet articles at face value: http://wiki.answers.com/Q/How_do_you_determine_the_age_of_a_sedimentary_rock_or_a_fossil_contained_within_it -- This clearly explains the circular logic I am referring to.

Again, even so, there are still the assumptions about the starting parameters, and what occurred between that period and now that may or may not have altered or skewed the test results. One would expect that if there were such things occurring in nature, they would have a linear effect on the entire sample, and likely all samples that exist at the given time, making discovering such shifts in the constants exceedingly difficult to discovery without direct observation and measurement of them occurring during our lifetimes.
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May 23 2011 05:53pm
Quote (njaguar @ May 23 2011 12:47pm)
Fact) You do not know the starting point of these elements.
Fact) Quantum physics currently state that you cannot measure this on an atom by atom basis, which is why they use groups and the Law of Large Numbers instead. This is another inherent flaw, and should be an obvious suspect in and of itself.
Fact) We have discovered things that effect the half-life of other elements (such as beryllium and rhenium-187). You cannot state empirically that no such conditions exist which could alter the half-life of other elements, nor that they did or did not occur in the past. You can assume and believe these things, but they are not facts.


The law of large numbers is very applicable, considering our sample sizes are billions of atoms.
And if you've got things that alter half lives, hit me with it. Haven't heard about anything changing a half-life.
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May 23 2011 06:13pm
Quote (BardOfXiix @ 23 May 2011 18:53)
The law of large numbers is very applicable, considering our sample sizes are billions of atoms.
And if you've got things that alter half lives, hit me with it.  Haven't heard about anything changing a half-life.


The half-life of lighter elements, like beryllium, have been demonstrated to be changed by chemical bonds depending on the proximity of the electrons to the nucleus, as well as some other environmental effects which change the structure of the atom (the 1s and 2s electrons, which are measured in the decay rate). Rhenium-187 half-life is changed even more dramatically when it is fully ionised (bare nuclei). There have been measurements of changes to some elements from other effects, like solar flares, and such as well, but that research is not fully conclusive.

It's interesting reading, if you're into that level of scientific-masochism. :D No, but seriously, it's pretty cool stuff.
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May 23 2011 06:22pm
Quote (njaguar @ May 23 2011 05:13pm)
The half-life of lighter elements, like beryllium, have been demonstrated to be changed by chemical bonds depending on the proximity of the electrons to the nucleus, as well as some other environmental effects which change the structure of the atom (the 1s and 2s electrons, which are measured in the decay rate). Rhenium-187 half-life is changed even more dramatically when it is fully ionised (bare nuclei). There have been measurements of changes to some elements from other effects, like solar flares, and such as well, but that research is not fully conclusive.

It's interesting reading, if you're into that level of scientific-masochism. :D No, but seriously, it's pretty cool stuff.


Curious, where'd you read about it?
I'd be interested in knowing what the other environmental effects are, since none of these seem to apply to heavy metals, which would not have inner electrons effected strongly by bond shapes (so much shielding).
Also, I'd be fascinated to hear where in nature you can find Rhenium-187 stripped to its nucleus. 75 electrons are awfully hard to remove.
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May 23 2011 06:31pm
Quote (BardOfXiix @ 23 May 2011 19:22)
Curious, where'd you read about it?
I'd be interested in knowing what the other environmental effects are, since none of these seem to apply to heavy metals, which would not have inner electrons effected strongly by bond shapes (so much shielding).
Also, I'd be fascinated to hear where in nature you can find Rhenium-187 stripped to its nucleus.  75 electrons are awfully hard to remove.


I remember reading part of this in Science magazine, fairly recently within the last few years. The other ones were in other articles, but might be longer ago (non-internet, the rhenium-187 one), I'd have to do some digging, but hopefully you can find them by some google searches, I'm fairly certain the material is archived on the internet from most of these publications (at least the Science ones)
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May 24 2011 06:34pm
Quote (cletus7seven @ May 23 2011 11:17pm)
or that cant be proven, hes just starting a debate that cannot be won.


I would like to say that i wasnt starting a debate. but you can say i have or havent looks as if theres some really good points in this thread.
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May 24 2011 07:09pm
nazis Are? Better than what?

Yes jews always got ran over each life xD
oh wait jews=.......what again?

This post was edited by Ldr on May 24 2011 07:09pm
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May 24 2011 10:36pm
Quote (Ldr @ May 25 2011 11:09am)
nazis Are? Better than what?

Yes jews always got ran over each life xD
oh wait jews=.......what again?


That didnt make any sense?

I guess what njaguar is saying in my head is belive what you belive
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