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Oct 8 2023 07:18am
Quote (majorblood @ 8 Oct 2023 15:06)
what's the gameplan by hamas here? attack a group of civilians so we can get completely bombed and raided by Israel? I guess they just want a catalyst for war, but even with support from some neighboring terrorist groups they aren't winning


Yeah, it looks like suicide by cop, I think the far-right Israeli gov will do a massacre in response.
Maybe they don't even have a plan, or maybe they have been infiltrated by people who don't care about Palestinians themselves... Maybe they also lost all hopes due the appartheid pressure since decades. Imho it's probably a mix of these factors.
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Oct 8 2023 07:20am
This seems intended to trigger a wider war, looks like Israel is going gloves off and about to flatten Gaza, if they do I don't see how it doesn't escalate with neighboring countries. Now is probably their best chance to attack Israel given the US is focused on Eastern Europe and Asia.

Does the US have the logistical capability to support Ukraine and Israel in a war while still maintaining its presence around China? They have a huge military but AFAIK their ideal preparedness level is for two major conflicts at a time, not sure if that is out of date
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Oct 8 2023 07:30am
Quote (DizzyBusiness @ Oct 8 2023 09:20am)
This seems intended to trigger a wider war, looks like Israel is going gloves off and about to flatten Gaza, if they do I don't see how it doesn't escalate with neighboring countries. Now is probably their best chance to attack Israel given the US is focused on Eastern Europe and Asia.

Does the US have the logistical capability to support Ukraine and Israel in a war while still maintaining its presence around China? They have a huge military but AFAIK their ideal preparedness level is for two major conflicts at a time, not sure if that is out of date


Largely agree, even if Hamas gets curb stomped, which they will be, the repercussions are that the fragile relationships that were built with the surrounding Muslims are going to deteriorate and be set back tremendously. Hamas basically martyred themselves to fuck Israel's aspirations that took decades to work towards.

I do think some dollars will probably get pulled from Ukraine and be redirected towards Israel.

One thing to note though, Russia is a pretty big player in the background here given their ties with Syria, Iran, Egypt, as well as good relationship with Israel. I could see them angling this for their own benefit. It should be telling that Arab League chief first stop is in Moscow.

Quote
MOSCOW - Arab League Chief Ahmed Aboul Gheit headed to Moscow on Sunday for talks with Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov on the situation in Gaza after Palestinian Islamist group Hamas launched the biggest attack on Israel in years.

Aboul Gheit, who served as Egypt’s foreign minister during the final seven years of Hosni Mubarak’s rule, will discuss the "ongoing escalation in the Gaza Strip," said a spokesman for the Cairo-based league of Arab states.


https://www.zawya.com/en/world/middle-east/arab-league-chief-heads-to-moscow-for-talks-after-hamas-attack-on-israel-tkqm6wo9

This post was edited by ofthevoid on Oct 8 2023 07:32am
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Oct 8 2023 07:31am
Quote (majorblood @ 8 Oct 2023 15:10)
what do you think the correct response is? What should Israel do?


The far right Netanyahu government ? If you read the Bible their solution is a complete genocide, but they can't really do it since they are attached to western democracies. Sad.

Seriously: The best solution is

1/ A campaign to destroy the terrorists, and only the terrorists, not thousands of civilians in bombings.
2/ To immediately remove the far right Netanyahu government (these people should be prosecuted) and to let the U.N to take the lead of this country and its army.
3/ They can live together, we have proof because of the existence of Israeli arabs (1/5 of the population); even if there are some discriminations.

This post was edited by Meanwhile on Oct 8 2023 07:34am
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Oct 8 2023 07:43am
Quote (Meanwhile @ Oct 8 2023 06:31am)
The far right Netanyahu government ? If you read the Bible their solution is a complete genocide, but they can't really do it since they are attached to western democracies. Sad.

Seriously: The best solution is

1/ A campaign to destroy the terrorists, and only the terrorists, not thousands of civilians in bombings.
2/ To immediately remove the far right Netanyahu government (these people should be prosecuted) and to let the U.N to take the lead of this country and its army.
3/ They can live together, we have proof because of the existence of Israeli arabs (1/5 of the population); even if there are some discriminations.


you think Israel should be overtaken by foreign leaders and the current leaders of Israel should be arrested due to a terrorist attack on Israel by Hamas?

that's an interesting perspective, but I don't think Israel or the UN or the United states has any support for this idea. The group that would have the most support for overthrowing the Israeli government would be Hamas and their sympathizers.
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Oct 8 2023 07:50am
Quote (ofthevoid @ Oct 8 2023 10:30am)
Largely agree, even if Hamas gets curb stomped, which they will be, the repercussions are that the fragile relationships that were built with the surrounding Muslims are going to deteriorate and be set back tremendously.

I do think some dollars will probably get pulled from Ukraine and be redirected towards Israel.

One thing to note though, Russia is a pretty big player in the background here given their ties with Syria, Iran, Egypt, as well as good relationship with Israel. I could see them angling this for their own benefit. It should be telling that Arab League chief first stop is in Moscow. Hamas basically martyred themselves to fuck Israel's aspirations that took decades to work towards.



https://www.zawya.com/en/world/middle-east/arab-league-chief-heads-to-moscow-for-talks-after-hamas-attack-on-israel-tkqm6wo9

I think Saudi Arabia and Turkey are going to be important players as well. Language out of SA seems very supportive of Hamas actions and Turkey has good relations with them too, not great for NATO relations.

Every western leader I have seen comment has used the same language of "right to defend itself" in regard to Israel, no mention of restraint or anything so I think they essentially have permission to do whatever they want. With the amount of people in Gaza it is going to be a nightmare. Really seems like it is on Israel to calm things down but I don't imagine they are feeling too diplomatic after an attack this bad. They have formed a unity government as well so the whole team is on board with whatever goes down.

This post was edited by DizzyBusiness on Oct 8 2023 07:51am
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Oct 8 2023 07:51am
Quote (majorblood @ 8 Oct 2023 15:43)
you think Israel should be overtaken by foreign leaders and the current leaders of Israel should be arrested due to a terrorist attack on Israel by Hamas?


No, I didnt write this. Current leaders of Israel are partly responsible in the escalations, since a while, for further discussion you have to read what i posted in the topic.

Quote (majorblood @ 8 Oct 2023 15:43)
that's an interesting perspective, but I don't think Israel or the UN or the United states has any support for this idea. The group that would have the most support for overthrowing the Israeli government would be Hamas and their sympathizers.


U.N created Israel, if it's a mess it should take it back.
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Oct 8 2023 07:59am
Quote (DizzyBusiness @ Oct 8 2023 09:50am)
I think Saudi Arabia and Turkey are going to be important players as well. Language out of SA seems very supportive of Hamas actions and Turkey has good relations with them too, not great for NATO relations.

Every western leader I have seen comment has used the same language of "right to defend itself" in regard to Israel, no mention of restraint or anything so I think they essentially have permission to do whatever they want. With the amount of people in Gaza it is going to be a nightmare. Really seems like it is on Israel to calm things down but I don't imagine they are feeling too diplomatic after an attack this bad.They have formed a unity government as well so the whole team is on board with whatever goes down.


They have to act, not after Hamas literally gunned down civilians and dragged others back to Gaza as human shields. Something this bad hasn't happened since the 70s. I honestly don't see how we don't end up without a huge body count. Arabs want a soft touch from Israel, giving warnings, but I think all of Israel is seeing red right now and they don't care.

This post was edited by ofthevoid on Oct 8 2023 08:00am
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Oct 8 2023 08:01am
Quote (DizzyBusiness @ Oct 8 2023 08:20am)
This seems intended to trigger a wider war, looks like Israel is going gloves off and about to flatten Gaza, if they do I don't see how it doesn't escalate with neighboring countries. Now is probably their best chance to attack Israel given the US is focused on Eastern Europe and Asia.

Does the US have the logistical capability to support Ukraine and Israel in a war while still maintaining its presence around China? They have a huge military but AFAIK their ideal preparedness level is for two major conflicts at a time, not sure if that is out of date


Israel isn't going to flatten Gaza. Its simply too large and dense. Its a city of 2 million people packed in like sardines. Israel won't even be willing to cut off water services.
I think the DMZ scenario is a very real possibility in the long term. If Gaza isn't going to go away, and Israel can no longer contain them with soft borders, we may very well see the Gaza Strip surrounded by a minefield, barbed wire, trenches, bunkers, etc. Look at the immediate response from the IDF- they can't just go in guns blazing while Hamas holds a hundred hostages, they won't accomplish anything by leveling more buildings, they aren't even bombing Gaza without first warning people to evacuate with tap strikes. But what did they do? They evacuated all the border kibbutz and villages. All those enclaves the Palestinians overran were liberated, then abandoned overnight. What happens if all the desert between the armistice line and surrounding Israel becomes a layered defense like the Korean DMZ? Only Sderot is too close to the border, and Israel has an obvious solution for that: Annexing the eastern sliver of Gaza (all farmland) and violating the armistice line to build the wall further from Sderot and put the DMZ between them.
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Oct 8 2023 08:14am
Brandenburg gate in Germany:

https://twitter.com/ianbremmer/status/1710759811720311107

Poetic justice that it's the Israeli flag on it. Heinrich's grandpa is turning in his grave right now.
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