Anyways I'm glad to see Nikki Haley is off the island

The odds right now are that Trump takes the white house, not an overwhelming advantage but at least above 50% given the negative state of the country. And then we'd have to look at the odds Trump croaks. And Nikki Haley becomes warmonger in chief.
Having that possibility out the window is nice, though it doesn't necessarily mean the real VP pick will wind up better. I still think Tim Scott is the strongest

Id rather vivek as vp

Vivek has many of the same strengths and weaknesses as Trump, he would add nothing to the ticket. Tim Scott would give at least some cover against accusations of racism. His unwaveringly calm and friendly demeanor would also contrast nicely with Trump and perhaps placate some swing voters who are on the fence about Trump. I still believe that a latino or latina running mate would have even more upside, but Scott would definitely be a good choice.

I mean its not worth understating how both Vivek and Nikki Haley give bonus indian voters, but there's already a very significant amount of black breakaway voters and they basically count as two votes each for Trump so Tim Scott adds by far the most electability of anyone I've seen so far.
Trump going with someone like Mike Lindell or Tucker Carlson would be proof he doesn't deserve to win a second term, but he's got some clear strategic options. I'm thankful its not Haley

The smartest thing he could do here. He is on the path to redemption!

Vivek is fantastic, but I think it would be good if he acquired more political experience before assuming the role of VP - put him in a high position this cycle and perhaps VP or even Prez next cycle

I also really like Scott for VP for reasons you mentioned. He did great in Trumps last term with his innovative Opportunity Zones initiative

This post was edited by El1te on Jan 21 2024 04:54pm

Do Indian Americans really identify with Haley though? Also, there just aren't that many of them. People of Indian descent who are actually eligible to vote should make up less than 2% of the electorate while blacks and hispanics make up 12-13% each.

The erosion of Democrats with black voters is real, but I question the magnitude. I, for my part, won't believe in a very significant black breakaway until I see it. For reference: according to exit polls, from 2016 to 2020, black voters went from a D+80 demographic to D+75. Meanwhile, Hispanics went from D+36 to D+32 and Asians went from D+36 to D+27.

This type of shift translates into the popular vote margin moving toward Trump by something like 0.5%. The choice of the VP would be lucky to add a swing of more than 0.1% on top of that. If 2024 comes down to that kind of margin, we're talking about civil war anyway...

This post was edited by Black XistenZ on Jan 21 2024 06:02pm

Well a +0.5% / -0.5% swing might be what it takes to get over the finish line. It might have let Trump win in 2020. Georgia was +0.23% Biden and is 33.1% black, PA was +1.2% Biden and is 12.2% black, Michigan +2.8% / 14.1%, Wisconsin +1.3% / 6.6%, Arizona +0.3% / 5.5%
Lets face it, Mike Pence got nobody to go out to the polls who wouldn't vote for Trump anyway except evangelicals who despise Trump on personality grounds, and that has become such a minority with Trump's lock on the base that he doesn't need to drum up any right wing support anymore
Besides, Tim Scott wouldn't be a big turn-off for anyone but the racist fringe on the right. Granted, that is a serious risk, I mean there's a lot of elderly voters in the republican base they count on, but is it so sizeable compared to eating into the Democrat's base?

Kamala Harris was picked just to be a black woman and failed at being a black woman, and even refuses the black woman gigs. Her favorability is even sagging among black voters. Tim Scott is a huge net negative too of course, simply by being a Republican, but all it takes is getting him in front of a camera a few times and being positive and he's going to attract more black vote than Mike Pence ever would, that's for sure

You make a great point about Mike Pence. He is just flat out unattractive and unpopular with modern Republican voters. That includes even the modern young evangelical Christian right.