It was actually taken out of context and actually only republicans are racist evil villains and btw youre banned from twitter.

thats okay ill just sue drumpf and theyll let me back on *LAUGH OUT LOUD*

Alright, it's been about 4 weeks since the last polling update. Nationally, Biden is at +9.1 when he was at +8.3 at the very end of July. So this includes Harris as his VP and a possible convention bounce. It's still ridiculously high but let's take a look at the swing state movement since that's really what matters.

AZ: Biden +4.3, was +3.9. There's a lot of variance in AZ polling. The last A rated poll as done prior to the convention and had Biden +7.
FL: Biden +5.6, was 6.0. Polling here is a bit more consistent but not of high quality. It's notable that Biden never gets above 50% in these polls so it seems that there are a lot of undecideds
GA: Trump +0.4, was Trump +1.2. Hardly any polling, but the polls are high quality here. This truly is a tossup at the moment.
IA: Trump + 1.0, no polling since end of July
MI: Biden +7.3, was +8.1. The trend here is definitely tightening over time. Very volatile polling but Biden has a very consistent average. The change is due to Trump getting a bit more support from undecideds. It doesn't matter if Biden is consistently at 50+% though.
MN: Biden +5.7. This is a new state that I'm adding because polling indicates that this will be close. Originally, this was a massive blowout state so I didn't include it. Expect a lot more polling to be done here.
NH: Biden +9.1, was +9.3. Only one blowout poll here for Biden.
NV: Biden +7.9, was +6.6. Again, no polling, strictly based on the national average.
NC: Biden +1.8, was +2.0. Similar to Georgia in that this is a true tossup but it's slightly bluer.
OH: Trump +0.3, was Trump +0.4. Only one poll that said the race was even.
PA: Biden +5.8, was+ 6.6. LOTS of polling here and definitely tightening over time. Basically the same thing as Michigan except slightly redder.
TX: Trump +0.9, was Biden +0.6. Not much polling here...but the polls are strange. They cluster into 2 very different groups and my gut tells me it's the group that has Trump winning by 5+. I feel like Texas is a trap for Biden in terms of campaigning. There's absolutely ZERO reason for him to campaign here b/c it would only run up the score. Focus on down ballots here as opposed to the presidency.
WI: Biden +6.2, was Trump +7.1. Another race that's seeing tightening with lots of polling. Basically between MI and PA in terms of "redness."

Updated map: https://www.270towin.com/maps/WoN4W

Biden will take NC but he will lose GA because of cheating and fuckery as usual.

it so much about AZ to me.

Imho it's not. I expect the outcome in the Rust Belt to be strongly correlated, so there's a good chance that if Trump pulls off the win in MN, he also wins in WI, etc. In this scenario, he also has good chances at picking off PA or MI.

The key for Trump to win is holding Florida and North Carolina, and then breaking through either in the lower or the upper Midwest. Arizona might be a tossup state, but it's unlikely that it will be the tipping point state. 538's election forecast gives us the probabilities for the various states to be the tipping point, and they look like this:



As you can see, Florida and Pennsylvania are dominating, followed by Wisconsin, Minnesota and Michigan. Arizona only becomes the state deciding the election in 5.3% of their simulation runs.


edit: Arizona can become the pivotal state in a map like this though: https://www.270towin.com/maps/kWK7P
But such an outcome isnt likely at the moment.

This post was edited by Black XistenZ on Aug 29 2020 05:37am

your second example was the map i was looking through. I feel like this "silent majority" bs might actually exist there and be un campaigned by Biden, and then becomes pivotal.. *stupid comment if TX was to ever flip blue, you might never see another R pres.

Where have I seen this before??

🤔 🤔 🤔

demented biden at it again with the incoherent rambling: