Quote (bogie160 @ 25 Aug 2020 22:40)
That's a really nice chart, thx for posting! Three or four weeks ago, I wrote about the fact that Biden had narrowed Trump's edge in the EC a little bit, compared to 2016. I didnt even realize that this advantage had flipped back in Trump's favor.
What's still really concerning for Trump, imho, is his trouble in Florida. FL was a good state for him, relative to the state's baseline and national trends. Was also one of the R's strongest states in 2018. Imho, Florida is a state where Trump's botched covid response really hurts him with the large elderly population. On the other hand, Biden seems to suffer from diminishing margins among Cubans in the aftermath of the riots and looting across American cities.
Overall, I think Biden is still in a good position in the battlegrounds. Yes, Trump has a decent shot to siphon off at least one of MN/WI/MI/PA, but he needs to at the same time hold both Arizona and Florida. Trump still has a realistic path to reelection, but fueled by Biden's relative strength in AZ and FL, he was able to spread the Trump campaign really thin. Biden can play defense while Trump must go on the offense somehow and at the same time play whack-a-mole.
This post was edited by Black XistenZ on Aug 25 2020 03:35pm