I really don't see food shortages in a country as vast and as sparsely populated as Russia. And I would assume that Russia will eventually figure out a way to protect its refineries. There's only a limited number of them, they're static and super high value targets, like, come on, plastering all of them with abundant air defense can't be that hard. Which leaves Ukraine with only roads, bridges and other small-scale parts of the logistics network as their target - far less effective and lower value than direct hits on refineries.
I anticipate Ukraine to continue pestering Russian logistics and oil export capabilities, but these direct hits on refineries will eventually end.
Damaging refiners is designed to reduce the availability of finished products (gasoline, diesel, etc.) while international oil flows are sitting at record highs for Russia. They will continue to export at record highs as the world is hungry for Russian oil (which by the way is a similar sour blend that typically flows through Hormuz and is in high demand now, particularly across all those Asian refiners setup up for medium sour grade). I was thinking about this and there's a way for Russia to get around it. They can export oil to third parties (India, China) and under some deal, whether it is discounted future oil or whatever, they can import the finished product from the same places that serve as their primary export vectors.
At that point Ukraine is not going to dare strike Chinese, Indian, Kazakhstan, Turkey fill in the blank on those territories. That's why in reality it is likely a short lived and only partially effective strategy for Ukraine.
This post was edited by ofthevoid on Jul 15 2026 05:32pm