Quote (Thor123422 @ Dec 14 2023 09:23pm)
and until Israel happened he was beating Trump nationally and overperforming in polling in basically every swing state, despite as Black said, the disapproval ratings being roughly constant.
The reason is very simple. Disapproving of Biden means disapproving of status quo politics by and large. Disapproving of Trump means you don't want Democracy to end.One of those things is much more motivating against that candidate.
Trump was actually ahead in most polls prior to October 7th and fell back to even in the immediate aftermath. Biden's share of the vote now is roughly in line with where it was pre-Gaza, whereas Trump's is higher.
No one outside the left-wing echo chamber buys the bold. What's motivating is a serious dissatisfaction with the status quo. Biden is the status quo, just as Trump was in 2020. A lot can change between now and election day, but Axelrod is right, it's not looking great from our current vantage point.