I think Pennsylvania is the state where the choice of the Democratic nominee might make the biggest difference. I really dont see Buttigieg or Warren winning it, while I think Biden and Sanders would have a good shot.

Great, another Jew to rig the election.

kek

Seeing how Biden will likely finish 4th in Iowa, I was curious where previous party nominees finished in Iowa since 2000. I didn't include Presidential incumbents (i.e. Trump's finish in Iowa in 2020).

2016 Dem-1 (Clinton), GOP-2 (Trump)
2012 GOP-2 (Romney)
2008 Dem-1 (Obama), GOP-4 (McCain)
2004 Dem-1 (Kerry)
2000 Dem-1 (Gore), GOP-1 (W. Bush)

Based on McCain finishing 4th, there is recent history of a candidate finishing that low and then going on to win the nomination. But even taking a gander at beyond 2000, the great majority of the time, the nominee at least finishes top 2.

Obviously a flawed analysis for multiple factors, but while Iowa isn't that important in terms of delegates, I think it does show some amount of electoral importance given how much candidates campaign there, even considering how White it is.

Biden flopped hard in Iowa. He'll do better in the South with POC of course, but he was projected to win Iowa for most of the past few months. This was a big flop by the former VP.

I think Bloomberg has the best chance vs Trump. there's just not enough data for msm to even talk about this.

also, what you found rhetorically brilliant about Kamala most people found precanned, rehearsed, and pandering. her tough on trump act wasnt that well recieved, especially when Tulsi took it to her and it proved she couldnt handle back and forth, just prewritten one liners. even her "attack" on Warren for not supporting a Trump Twitter ban showed about how desperate she was and devoid of policy. i started off liking her, but then it faded quickly. i dont think she could have handled trump on stage unless he made a big oopsie and referenced her blackness or womanhood.

damn you, lol’d

Lol what? Are you trolling or trippin'?

Bloomberg is a rich billionaire who's mostly in this race so that Bernie or Warren dont become president by accident and raise his taxes. He's disliked by the very liberal Dems, the Bernie and Warren crowd. He's also out of touch, stylistically and in terms of his platform, with working-class voters. He also has fallen out of grace with minority communities based on his stop and frisk policies.

I'm sure he's well liked in the newsrooms of the NYTimes and the WaPo though.

@Bold, that's by far his best quality to beat Trump.

@Underlined, what democrat isnt?

the democrats need to have the most out of touch with the SJW crowd candidate as possible to have a chance at beating Trump. they need to have the least socialist ideas, the lowest tax burden, and the least race/sex/gender policy platform.

moderates are looking for a return to normalcy, not a pendulum swing in the opposite direction. and what are Bernie Bros and Warren fangirls going to do? vote for Trump? it's a binary choice.

This post was edited by thesnipa on Feb 5 2020 08:42am

I agree with the bolded part, but still dont think Bloomberg can deliver that.
A billionaire from NYC who made his fortunes with a financial services company and who's literally buying his place in the primaries with outrageous spending will never be liked or accepted by the Bernie and Warren supporters. Similarly, an old white dude whose suit looks as if it costs more than the average citizen earns in a year will not appeal to working-class voters nor blacks or latinos, and his history with stop and frisk policies and being a Republican as mayor of New York wont help endear him with minority voters either.

Simply put, I just dont think that there's a strong enough constituency/base for someone like him. At least not in the Democratic primaries. To win them, he will have to pander either to the economically far-left or to the sjw-far-left. And once he does that, his appeal with conservative-leaning voters in the middle who want a return to normalcy will be diminished. Also... Bloomberg is 5'6" or something like that. He'd look like a total wimp next to Trump on the debate stage. Isnt there this insane statistic that 80+% of the presidential races in American history were won by the taller candidate?



The logic of Bloomberg's candidacy hinges on two big assumptions: 1.: there is a large enough segment of the population willing to break with Trump if only the Democrats nominate a normal/reasonable/boring/non-socialjusticewarrior-y enough candidate. 2.: that the far-left people wont stay home or vote for third party candidates like they did in 2016, no matter how much they dislike the Democratic nominee. I personally think that both assumptions dont hold to a large enough degree. If the race becomes Bloomberg vs Trump, the less engaged millenials and minorities will just tune out, as will many working-class voters who arent into Trump.



Imho, the ideal candidate to beat Trump would be someone like Biden who is not Biden. XD
Someone who's center-left, not strong into the sjw- and socialism-stuff, but who also has appeal with working-class voters and minorities, and who doesnt reek of plutocracy. If Biden wasnt a senile fossil and a gaffe-machine, he'd be the ideal candidate to beat Trump.

This post was edited by Black XistenZ on Feb 5 2020 10:26am