Quote (Goomshill @ Sep 11 2024 08:28am)
I see a lot more wisdom in someone like Nate Silver trying to anticipate not just our present but what the trends spell between now and election. Kamala is heavily disadvantaged by being an incredibly unpopular candidate who had consistent ~33% favorability ratings for the past 4 years, inheriting the poisoned incumbent ticket for an administration who is universally regarded as a total fuckup even by its supporters, and being a 5'4" unattractive black indian woman running against a 6'3" white guy. If you want to learn what most voters think maybe you should try talking to the folks who drive trucks, stock shelves or wait tables. Starting with something like "Did you watch the debate?" and "How is the economy?"
Sure, I follow Nate Silver and his model is useful, but I don't know how that relates to the debate.
Most of my family are voting Trump and I'm in a state that is heavily Republican, and I'm a former Republican, so I think I have a pretty good understanding of how voters will see this.
Again, I said I don't know that Trump's debate loss will matter that much. But there are moments that can be utilized by Kamala's team to appeal to some voters.