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Dec 14 2023 06:24pm
Quote (Thor123422 @ 15 Dec 2023 00:48)
Pure delusion.


I also tend to disagree on that point, but I wouldn't call it pure delusion. Trump already made inroads with Black men and working-class/rural hispanics in 2020, I wouldn't rule it out that this trend continues in 2024. Whether this growth would be enough to offset the further erosion he should have suffered with establishment-friendly and/or "values-driven" voters due to Jan 6 and Dobbs is a different question.

So on aggregate, I also tend to think his base has gotten smaller, not bigger. But so did Biden's. In 2020, Biden ran as a generic, sane politician, a blank slate whose definiting quality was not being Trump. Sprinkled with some fond memories of the Obama years. In 2024, Biden will have a track record of his own to defend, and it's not looking pretty. Another factor in Trump's favor is that the candidates will actually be able to campaign this time around. We know that Trump is a strong campaigner, but can anyone actually imagine a Biden rally in 2024? :lol:
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Dec 14 2023 06:28pm
Quote (Black XistenZ @ Dec 14 2023 06:24pm)
I also tend to disagree on that point, but I wouldn't call it pure delusion. Trump already made inroads with Black men and working-class/rural hispanics in 2020, I wouldn't rule it out that this trend continues in 2024. Whether this growth would be enough to offset the further erosion he should have suffered with establishment-friendly and/or "values-driven" voters due to Jan 6 and Dobbs is a different question.

So on aggregate, I also tend to think his base has gotten smaller, not bigger. But so did Biden's. In 2020, Biden ran as a generic, sane politician, a blank slate whose definiting quality was not being Trump. Sprinkled with some fond memories of the Obama years. In 2024, Biden will have a track record of his own to defend, and it's not looking pretty. Another factor in Trump's favor is that the candidates will actually be able to campaign this time around. We know that Trump is a strong campaigner, but can anyone actually imagine a Biden rally in 2024? :lol:


Biden's was getting bigger until Israel happened and he alienated basically everybody who doesn't like genocide.

Besides Israel Biden's track record has been pretty great as far as presidents go. Supported unions, weathered a recession, unemployment still very low, public infrastructure and onshoring manufacturing looking good, inflation down to 3%. Pretty solid.

But he alienated most muslim democrats and most of the youth by not even pretending to resist Israel's bombing of civilians for a solid month. I think they'll come back around by election time when they realize Trump would have asked them to go harder, but we'll see. I'll never underestimate the ability of anybody who even pretends to be on the left to shoot themselves in the foot.
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Dec 14 2023 06:57pm
Quote (Thor123422 @ 15 Dec 2023 01:28)
Biden's was getting bigger until Israel happened

Not actually true. Since the beginning of this year, Biden's approval ratings stood at the same net -10 to net -12 that Trump had throughout most of his presidency. If anything, Biden was already on a slight downward trajectory before the Oct 7 massacre and the subsequent Gaza war happened. Since then, his approvals are worse than Trump's.

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/biden-approval-rating/



Quote
Supported unions

You mean like this?
https://www.reuters.com/world/us/biden-signs-bill-block-us-railroad-strike-2022-12-02/

He supported unions when it was politically expedient, and busted them when their strikes would have been inopportune.



Quote
weathered a recession

... at great cost to average Americans squeezed between inflation and unaffordable housing. If Biden and the FED hadn't mishandled inflation so badly, the interest rate hikes (and thus the economic pain) wouldn't have been as high.



Quote
inflation down to 3%

Cool, but prices are still way up from where they were 2.5 years ago. Basically anyone who didn't switch jobs or got a promotion over the past 3 years has experienced significant real income losses. Even factoring in that a lot of folks quit their shitty jobs during the pandemic to find something better, the median (!) real (!!) wages are still lower in Q3/2023 than they were in Q1/2020 (the last quarter before the impact from covid shutdowns and stimulus was felt), according to official government statistics:

https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/LES1252881600Q

Considering the allegedly oh-so-tight labor market, one would have expected solid wage growth over the past 2 years, rather than stagnation. And again: a lot of folks, particularly those stuck in their current job, experienced a real economic downfall, not just stagnation.

This post was edited by Black XistenZ on Dec 14 2023 07:07pm
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Dec 14 2023 07:30pm
Quote (Black XistenZ @ Dec 14 2023 06:57pm)
Not actually true. Since the beginning of this year, Biden's approval ratings stood at the same net -10 to net -12 that Trump had throughout most of his presidency. If anything, Biden was already on a slight downward trajectory before the Oct 7 massacre and the subsequent Gaza war happened. Since then, his approvals are worse than Trump's.

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/biden-approval-rating/

You mean like this?
https://www.reuters.com/world/us/biden-signs-bill-block-us-railroad-strike-2022-12-02/

He supported unions when it was politically expedient, and busted them when their strikes would have been inopportune.

... at great cost to average Americans squeezed between inflation and unaffordable housing. If Biden and the FED hadn't mishandled inflation so badly, the interest rate hikes (and thus the economic pain) wouldn't have been as high.

Cool, but prices are still way up from where they were 2.5 years ago. Basically anyone who didn't switch jobs or got a promotion over the past 3 years has experienced significant real income losses. Even factoring in that a lot of folks quit their shitty jobs during the pandemic to find something better, the median (!) real (!!) wages are still lower in Q3/2023 than they were in Q1/2020 (the last quarter before the impact from covid shutdowns and stimulus was felt), according to official government statistics:
https://i.imgur.com/BRxqQhA.jpg
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/LES1252881600Q

Considering the allegedly oh-so-tight labor market, one would have expected solid wage growth over the past 2 years, rather than stagnation. And again: a lot of folks, particularly those stuck in their current job, experienced a real economic downfall, not just stagnation.


Approval ratings, to be frank, mean very little in this election climate, and they mean different things among the parties. Disapprovals for Biden will still come from likely Biden voters, but if you disapprove of Trump it's very unlikely that person will vote for him. Biden is a very bland candidate, Trump is extremely polarizing.

He went back and got the railraod workers their sick days and vacation after the midterms. It was all over the news. But I know your news diet is basically all right wing coverage, so I understand you wouldn't see what was covered basically everywhere else. He supported the UAW being the first president to visit the picket line. He was just inaugerated as an honorary member of the carpenter's union. His base of support among union workers is very strong right now.

We did not have exceptionally high interest rate hikes. We are historically average right now. The PEAK of this business cycle's interest rates is the historical average. That's quite good now matter how you slice it. Biden doesn't have much control over the Fed. No president does really. Which is how it should be. Although the Fed's interest in making sure a greater share goes to the wealthy to maintain a "healthy economy" needs to be reigned in. Biden is certainly not doing anything to help that, but no president has.... like ever.

Indeed real earnings haven't recovered. This is the only legitimate point you've made in this post.



This is about the tier of post I expected though. I know you would rather die than ever give a Democrat credit for anything. I notice you spent literal years exclaiming how Trump was so amazing for taking unemployment through a "much more difficult" 5% to 3.5%, but Biden took it from 6% to 3.5% and you aren't shouting the same exclamations.

This post was edited by Thor123422 on Dec 14 2023 07:35pm
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Dec 14 2023 08:05pm
Quote (Black XistenZ @ Dec 14 2023 06:17pm)
Trump's polling numbers during the 2020 cycle were bogged down by people feeling oversaturated with the Trump Show. And by the extremely adverse circumstances that year. And yes, I do believe that Jan 6, the blown Senate races in Georgia, the indictments and perhaps also Dobbs have alienated some (former) supporters who were on the fence and barely got themselves to vote for him one last time in 2020.

This whole argument about the economy would carry a lot more weight if we hadn't just lived through a midterm cycle when voters felt the same way about hurting under Biden and having thrived under Trump - and Democrats performing really well (relative to the atrocious fundamentals) anyway. The economy was a significantly smaller factor in 2022 than most of us thought. I don't see a compelling reason why this should change in 2024, why the salience of the economy should be higher when inflation has abated a fair bit and when Trump's larger-than-life persona will overshadow the entire race.


Not his polling numbers, but rather his actual support. If poor polling predicted a poor performance for Trump in 2020, we have to have a good reason for why good polling predicts a bad performance for Trump in 2024. Jan 6th, the indictments, Dobbs are all well worn news. If they've distanced people from Trump, we should see it in the polls. But we don't, Trump's support is polling higher than it did in 2020. So what gives, are people afraid to say they support Biden and happy to say they support Trump? I'd be really surprised if that's the case.

Re: Trump overperforming polling
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2020-election-forecast/
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_United_States_presidential_election

Quote (Thor123422 @ Dec 14 2023 08:30pm)
Approval ratings, to be frank, mean very little in this election climate, and they mean different things among the parties. Disapprovals for Biden will still come from likely Biden voters, but if you disapprove of Trump it's very unlikely that person will vote for him. Biden is a very bland candidate, Trump is extremely polarizing.

He went back and got the railraod workers their sick days and vacation after the midterms. It was all over the news. But I know your news diet is basically all right wing coverage, so I understand you wouldn't see what was covered basically everywhere else. He supported the UAW being the first president to visit the picket line. He was just inaugerated as an honorary member of the carpenter's union. His base of support among union workers is very strong right now.

We did not have exceptionally high interest rate hikes. We are historically average right now. The PEAK of this business cycle's interest rates is the historical average. That's quite good now matter how you slice it. Biden doesn't have much control over the Fed. No president does really. Which is how it should be. Although the Fed's interest in making sure a greater share goes to the wealthy to maintain a "healthy economy" needs to be reigned in. Biden is certainly not doing anything to help that, but no president has.... like ever.

Indeed real earnings haven't recovered. This is the only legitimate point you've made in this post.



This is about the tier of post I expected though. I know you would rather die than ever give a Democrat credit for anything. I notice you spent literal years exclaiming how Trump was so amazing for taking unemployment through a "much more difficult" 5% to 3.5%, but Biden took it from 6% to 3.5% and you aren't shouting the same exclamations.


When people are polled in the aggregate, they say overwhelmingly that Biden's policies have hurt them. This conversation isn't about spamming Biden admin talking points, it's about addressing the real dissatisfaction with the Biden administration.

This post was edited by bogie160 on Dec 14 2023 08:09pm
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Dec 14 2023 08:23pm
Quote (bogie160 @ Dec 14 2023 08:05pm)
When people are polled in the aggregate, they say overwhelmingly that Biden's policies have hurt them. This conversation isn't about spamming Biden admin talking points, it's about addressing the real dissatisfaction with the Biden administration.


and until Israel happened he was beating Trump nationally and overperforming in polling in basically every swing state, despite as Black said, the disapproval ratings being roughly constant.

The reason is very simple. Disapproving of Biden means disapproving of status quo politics by and large. DIsapproving of Trump means you don't want Democracy to end. One of those things is much more motivating against that candidate.

This post was edited by Thor123422 on Dec 14 2023 08:23pm
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Dec 14 2023 10:17pm
Quote (Black XistenZ @ Dec 14 2023 04:24pm)
can anyone actually imagine a Biden rally in 2024? :lol:


Neither can anyone from 2020 remember one. Biden is president because there's no referee on the field.
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Dec 14 2023 10:22pm
Quote (Thor123422 @ Dec 14 2023 06:23pm)
DIsapproving of Trump means you don't want Democracy to end.


please tell me you're writing this Colbert-tier dreck ironically
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Dec 14 2023 10:27pm
Quote (Thebarba @ Dec 14 2023 08:22pm)
please tell me you're writing this Colbert-tier dreck ironically


And they accuse us of radical rhetoric 🤔
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Dec 14 2023 10:30pm
Quote (Thebarba @ Dec 14 2023 08:22pm)
please tell me you're writing this Colbert-tier dreck ironically


When they talk about (D)emocracy, what they really mean is a Soviet single party state where only approved candidates are allowed
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