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Nov 6 2016 11:15am
Quote (Thor123422 @ 6 Nov 2016 00:06)
I don't think it's so cut and dry. Her ground game is amazing, and she has so many resources at her disposal. It came out that she hired psychologists to get inside Trump's head, and was buying ad time following his campaign trail to irk him into making harmful comments. She's truly a political monster, in the sense that she's so effective.


Her campaign strategy and ground game really are amazing, which speaks volumes about the candidate herself when you consider she is only nursing a 1.8 point lead against the worst major party nominee in history.

Not so great for the "most qualified presidential candidate ever" who is running against someone with an embarrassingly bad campaign and can't stay out of his own way for more than a week.
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Nov 6 2016 11:16am
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Nov 6 2016 11:17am
Quote (ThatAlex @ Nov 6 2016 01:15pm)
Her campaign strategy and ground game really are amazing, which speaks volumes about the candidate herself when you consider she is only nursing a 1.8 point lead against the worst major party nominee in history.

Not so great for the "most qualified presidential candidate ever" who is running against someone with an embarrassingly bad campaign and can't stay out of his own way for more than a week.


Her lead is substantial at this point. Up to almost 80% favorite.
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Nov 6 2016 11:19am
Quote (Voyaging @ 6 Nov 2016 12:17)
Her lead is substantial at this point. Up to almost 80% favorite.


Again, not impressed considering the historically weak competition.

She'd stand a good shot at losing against someone more competent like Kasich.
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Nov 6 2016 11:21am
Quote (ThatAlex @ Nov 6 2016 01:19pm)
Again, not impressed considering the historically weak competition.

She'd stand a good shot at losing against someone more competent like Kasich.


Trump obliterated the entire Republican Primary despite being an enormous underdog when they started.

Just because you don't like him does not mean he isn't a strong candidate politically. He's exactly what a huge portion of the country was looking for.
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Nov 6 2016 11:24am
Quote (Voyaging @ 6 Nov 2016 12:21)
Trump obliterated the entire Republican Primary despite being an enormous underdog when they started.

Just because you don't like him does not mean he isn't a strong candidate politically. He's exactly what a huge portion of the country was looking for.


He's a historically weak candidate. This isn't about whether I like him or not. His favorability ratings are the worst for a major party nominee in history.

The GOP voters may have nominated who most wanted, but that doesn't mean he's a good candidate. By almost all metrics, he is a bad candidate.

I'm not going to try and spin Trump into being a good candidate because he represents who a plurality of GOP primary voters wanted, or try to spin Clinton into a good candidate because she's beating such a bad opponent.

These are both bad candidates, one is just less worse (way less worse) than the other. Let's not trick ourselves into thinking Trump is actually a strong candidate or that Clinton is actually a good candidate because she has an ~79% chance of beating a disaster.
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Nov 6 2016 01:36pm
Quote (Voyaging @ Nov 6 2016 11:21am)
Trump obliterated the entire Republican Primary despite being an enormous underdog when they started.

Just because you don't like him does not mean he isn't a strong candidate politically. He's exactly what a huge portion of the country was looking for.


"obliterated" is a pretty strong word to use.
Quote (ThatAlex @ Nov 6 2016 11:15am)
Her campaign strategy and ground game really are amazing, which speaks volumes about the candidate herself when you consider she is only nursing a 1.8 point lead against the worst major party nominee in history.

Not so great for the "most qualified presidential candidate ever" who is running against someone with an embarrassingly bad campaign and can't stay out of his own way for more than a week.


The current polls aren't really indicative of the race. A 1.8 point lead in national polling currently really undersells her current advantage. No matter what the current polls say, a consistent 8 point lead doesn't evaporate over night.
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Nov 6 2016 01:40pm
Quote (Skinned @ Nov 6 2016 08:53am)
He is manufactured and his personality is based on what might be projected to do well. Trump is authentic and he steamrolled the candidates who were the type to be handled by a team. It's no accident that loner rebel Ted Cruz killed it too. Same with Kasich and Sanders who are both unorthodox in their own way. It is uncommon for the GOP and Dem intelligensia to all align in the way they did like they have for Clinton. She is at least competent enough to manage their affairs. She is Machiavelli's Prince incarnate.


the only thing kasich killed was a sandwich
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Nov 6 2016 01:42pm
Quote (Thor123422 @ 6 Nov 2016 13:36)
"obliterated" is a pretty strong word to use.

The current polls aren't really indicative of the race. A 1.8 point lead in national polling currently really undersells her current advantage. No matter what the current polls say, a consistent 8 point lead doesn't evaporate over night.


That could be true, but FiveThirtyEight currently has her at +2.8 point lead with about a 3 point polling error. I have no doubt the media has done their best to try and spin this into a tighter race to boost ratings, but I also think that HRC has demonstrated to be a relatively weak candidate relative to expecations, given the finesse of her campaign and strength of her ground game, especially compared to Trump's.

She's weak in a couple of key areas - she's got very poor favorability ratings and a very poor trustworthy rating, along with a lot of high-profile negatives (most notably the FBI investigation, fair or not). The two best things she has going for her this election are 1) she's a Democrat and the Democrats currently have the advantage nationally and 2) she's up against arguably the worst major party nominee in history.
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Nov 6 2016 03:37pm


President Trump is @62% chance to win after those latest releases finally took effect.
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