The easiest path for Clinton remains MI/WI/PA/CO/VA/NH for 272 EVs, and even that allows for the off chance that the less-educated, more-rural ME-2 congressional district narrowly drifts to Trump (and keeps the Omaha-based NE-2 at a tossup). She's using NV as insurance since the early voting numbers continue to look good there (very similar to 2012), and is aggressively playing for NC and FL because a win in either would cut Trump off almost immediately.
Quote (ThatAlex @ Nov 1 2016 02:44pm)
Why isn't the most qualified presidential candidate in US history dominating arguably the worst major party nominee ever? Did the DNC underestimate Clinton's negatives or are Americans really that foolish to think Trump is the better option? Both?
I'm just confused why the most qualified candidate ever isn't throwing down a about a 7 point lead or more against such a disastrous candidate. Anything less than 7 or 8 points on election day will be a disappointment - Obama beat McCain by 7.2 points in 2008, and Clinton should beat a candidate as bad Trump by more than that or at least that margin.
It'd seriously be the height of stupidity to think that it'd be a disappointment if Clinton doesn't outperform the largest NPV win in the last 30 years (we tend to ignore 1996 since it'd be unfair to Dole to compare a guy who was triaged to people who weren't). There should be no confusion why Clinton isn't winning by a historic margin: that rarely happens anymore, and she's held to an entirely different standard in every way. Her media coverage was overwhelmingly negative (especially in 2015), whereas Trump received an unprecedented sum of free media that actually graded out as positive since most of it came in the form of his rallies being televised with no commentary.
The craziest statistic of 2016 is that even Clinton's
issue-based media coverage was
84% negative. And this is an area where she stands head and shoulders above not only Trump but every other candidate in the field. No nominee has
ever faced something like what Clinton did with the press this cycle, that's a huge reason why she's not leading by more.