it's silly in the US expansion for the reason your listed. no allies, no prospects, failed state, fleeing population, etc. what is the upside? eliminate a "socialist" regime nearby us? stop cuban immigration? spending even a single dollar on Cuba's downfall is a waste of a dollar. MAYBE, and its a big maybe, we get a western friendly new regime then we invest bigly into the nation to raise it up to the point they can potentially repay us. its a pure optics play for neocons and cuban nationals here in the USA. doesnt shift anything for midterms even if we "win".
The Trump admin has obviously been pursuing a revival of the Monroe doctrine in recent months and tried to get "the house" in order. As it stands, Cuba is an obvious weak spot for the American hegemony over the entirety of the Western hemisphere, a potential entry point for Chinese/Russian influence and subversion.
Coming from this perspective, it would be worth it if regime change in Cuba can be achieved at low cost/effort. Atm, the US are applying tremendous pressure on Cuba and it's not like they need to spend billions per day to do it.
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When it comes to the greater picture, it seems like the longterm strategy is to make the dominos fall one by one, starting with the weakest ones:
First, Azerbaijan - a country vaguely allied with the US and Turkey - settled the Nagorny Karabakh conflict because Armenia's big brother Russia was tied up in Ukraine.
Then, the US began clawing back control over the Panama canal, essentially kicking the Chinese out in the end.
Meanwhile, Russia's longterm ally Assad in Syria got steamrolled and Russia - unlike in 2015 - couldn't do anything about it.
Then, Maduro was captured and the regime in Venezuela fell in line.
Next, American claims for military control over Greenland were asserted.
Now, Cuba is being starved out and Iran itself is on the chopping block.
Trump's methods and tone have often been unsavory, and the Greenland stuff and the Iran war haven't gone according to plan, perhaps caused more harm than good - but the larger strategy couldn't be more obvious.
This post was edited by Black XistenZ on Mar 21 2026 10:21am