Quote (Black XistenZ @ Sep 30 2022 12:58am)
I'm not convinced by this supposedly direct and clear motive for the US. Like I've explained some days ago, we're months away from the hypothetical risk of public upheaval forcing European governments to break rank from the sanctions regime and seeking to mend fences with Russia at the expense of Ukraine and the US geopolitical goals. If the US were behind this, why blow the pipelines up now and give your (allegedly) unreliable allies time to repair them? Also, why risk everything you've worked for in this conflict just to take out two pipelines when there are other, land-based pipelines left that the dastardly Europeans could also use once they resume trade with Russia?
And last but not least: the United States are militarily allied with Europe and they are heavily invested in Europe. American hedge funds and companies hold trillions of investment in Europe which are being crushed as we speak due to the energy-price-induced recession looming over the European economy. It makes no sense to operate under the assumption that the US has an interest in tanking the European economy, both based on financial grounds and because they need their allies to be strong when the inevitable showdown with China happens further down the line. You know who unambiguously benefits from new panic/instability/uncertainty on the energy markets? Russia.
I don't think there's a 'direct and clear motive' for anyone but China, that's what I've been saying. Everyone else has something to gain, something to lose. This war started with the leverage that Russia held by circumventing Ukraine as a pipeline transit country by building NS2, and the US opposing it. Land based pipelines gave Ukraine leverage over Russia and literally going around them meant they were now defenseless. But similarly, if the EU is voluntarily embargoing Russian gas, Ukraine's chip is off the table just the same.
Russia clearly preferred having geopolitical leverage over the EU that was benefiting themselves more than the EU. If they didn't want Nord Stream, they wouldn't have built in the first place. If we thought it was a good thing, we wouldn't have opposed it.
Trump was adamant about stopping NS, and Biden while initially more dovish on Russia with all the hypocrisy that required, has now become a firebrand and made a less-than-veiled threat to blow up NS, which is why the weight of evidence is still against the US
Quote (kusotarre1 @ Sep 30 2022 01:00am)
The words of an insane person who thinks the Chinese, who haven't invaded another country since his dad was coyly sharing a smooch with mama, would send a sub across the ocean to plant bombs on a pipeline in a conflict that they barely support to begin with.
The Chinese are the only people fully benefiting from the continued US-Russian hostilities. Everyone else has something to lose, the Chinese are laughing as all their geopoltiical rivals degrade themselves.
What's against it is the remoteness of the action for China to carry out surreptitiously, their risk adverse nature and the extreme backfire if it were discovered. I don't think China are the likely culprits, but when all we're going on is motive, they're the only party with a pure motive.
This post was edited by Goomshill on Sep 30 2022 12:27am