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Sep 14 2022 10:05am
Quote (kusotarre1 @ Sep 14 2022 10:45am)
If we're doing bets, how about a shorter term one?

The cities of Kherson, Mariupol, Donetsk and Luhansk will all still be under Russian control by the end of this year. If any of them aren't, you win. 1k, even odds?


How much of Kherson constitutes "control?" I'm perfectly willing to assert that Ukraine will control Kherson west of the Dnieper. If so, I'll take that bet under gentlemen's terms.
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Sep 14 2022 10:11am
Quote (Santara @ Sep 14 2022 09:05am)
How much of Kherson constitutes "control?" I'm perfectly willing to assert that Ukraine will control Kherson west of the Dnieper. If so, I'll take that bet under gentlemen's terms.

Sure, sounds good. If Ukraine controls any of those cities, including Kherson City west of the Dnieper, you win. If they don't control any of them, I win.

Deal.

This post was edited by kusotarre1 on Sep 14 2022 10:11am
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Sep 14 2022 10:40am
I don't think its Russia vs Ukraine as both leader are with the evil man.

They just created a other massive event to let them do whatever they want outside of it and it gave them a reason to put most of the blame on.

no matter what happen on the field. Russia or them unfortunately have a ace in their sleeves


if they close gas before or during Winter its ... catastrophic to a extreme level for Europe but it will affect most of the world too as Europe companies will have to reduce their production of everything while creating a massive increase in price of everything with how expensive energy will be.




Now lets think would they prefer a fast war taking few days or a war that last months? Russia as a country would prefer few days but if Russia is part of the evil man group then lasting months is what they wanted.

Putin as a person without be biased by his bad actions or choice is clearly a really intelligent person.

So did he became too old and doesn't think straight or we are just blinded by what is really happening down there?

I know old people at 65-70 years old who start to show some mental health problem but I also know people over 85-90 year old who think twice as good as the one 20 year younger by how they live their life and I don't think how Putin live his life would let his brain go bad by his 70.


So did Putin really underestimate how hard the task would be or did he wanted that all along?

as good as he was as a strategist for all his life .. i can hardly believe he would fail like this.










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Sep 14 2022 11:00am
It's wrong to think of Russia as being controlled by Putin and Putin alone. It's a very bureaucratic country that takes it's rules and procedures fairly seriously, and Putin's strongest quality as a leader is that he's successfully wrangled a pretty disparate bunch of people and institutions into something resembling a workable state.

Great Man Theory isn't just silly in Russia, it's silly everywhere. History by and large isn't made by the whims of singular and unique people, but by the glacier-strength movement of capital flows, production forces, ideological currents, and so on. Single people or single weather events or whatnot can surely influence things (would China have carried out the Four Pests campaign without the particularities of Mao? Would Ukrainians today be so deranged without the bad springs and summers of 1929 and 1930?), but even then they are bounded by historical circumstance created by much larger things.
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Sep 14 2022 11:04am
Russia takes its rules and procedures very seriously. Which is why the law that opposition has to be executed outside Putin's office is always respected.
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Sep 14 2022 11:17am
Quote (kusotarre1 @ Sep 14 2022 12:00pm)
It's wrong to think of Russia as being controlled by Putin and Putin alone. It's a very bureaucratic country that takes it's rules and procedures fairly seriously, and Putin's strongest quality as a leader is that he's successfully wrangled a pretty disparate bunch of people and institutions into something resembling a workable state.

Great Man Theory isn't just silly in Russia, it's silly everywhere. History by and large isn't made by the whims of singular and unique people, but by the glacier-strength movement of capital flows, production forces, ideological currents, and so on. Single people or single weather events or whatnot can surely influence things (would China have carried out the Four Pests campaign without the particularities of Mao? Would Ukrainians today be so deranged without the bad springs and summers of 1929 and 1930?), but even then they are bounded by historical circumstance created by much larger things.


great man theory holds up very well in North Korea tho. the kim family and a small contingent of a regime runs the entire country with almost no influence by the "oligarchs", if you can even call them that in such an impoverished place.

but overall yes the idea that Russia is run by oligarchs as much as or more than by Putin is a well known thing. Putin however is the figurehead and therefore gets the criticism. still we get a lot of stories about Russian Oil barrens having their property seized in this war.

This post was edited by thesnipa on Sep 14 2022 11:18am
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Sep 14 2022 11:21am
Quote (THCHunter @ Sep 14 2022 12:40pm)
I don't think its Russia vs Ukraine as both leader are with the evil man.

They just created a other massive event to let them do whatever they want outside of it and it gave them a reason to put most of the blame on.

no matter what happen on the field. Russia or them unfortunately have a ace in their sleeves


if they close gas before or during Winter its ... catastrophic to a extreme level for Europe but it will affect most of the world too as Europe companies will have to reduce their production of everything while creating a massive increase in price of everything with how expensive energy will be.




Now lets think would they prefer a fast war taking few days or a war that last months? Russia as a country would prefer few days but if Russia is part of the evil man group then lasting months is what they wanted.

Putin as a person without be biased by his bad actions or choice is clearly a really intelligent person.

So did he became too old and doesn't think straight or we are just blinded by what is really happening down there?

I know old people at 65-70 years old who start to show some mental health problem but I also know people over 85-90 year old who think twice as good as the one 20 year younger by how they live their life and I don't think how Putin live his life would let his brain go bad by his 70.


So did Putin really underestimate how hard the task would be or did he wanted that all along?

as good as he was as a strategist for all his life .. i can hardly believe he would fail like this.


Good work. You are smarter than the mass and was able to think outside the MSM narrative which everyone went with. Kudo for you to be able to believe something else than what the MSM/Social influencers want you to believe. Most on JSP don't have that feat.
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Sep 14 2022 11:25am
Quote (thesnipa @ Sep 14 2022 10:17am)
great man theory holds up very well in North Korea tho. the kim family and a small contingent of a regime runs the entire country

A thing you know for sure, eh? Kim Jong Un isn't even the DPRK's head of state.

But this isn't even Great Man Theory. The presence of the Kims as some sort of monarchy isn't GMT any more than Charlemagne existing was evidence of GMT.

The creation of the DPRK wasn't driven by Kim Il Sung's leadership in the war, or MacArthur's, or Mao's. It's post-war trajectory wasn't, either.

This post was edited by kusotarre1 on Sep 14 2022 11:25am
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Sep 14 2022 11:27am
Quote (kusotarre1 @ Sep 14 2022 12:25pm)
A thing you know for sure, eh? Kim Jong Un isn't even the DPRK's head of state.

But this isn't even Great Man Theory. The presence of the Kims as some sort of monarchy isn't GMT any more than Charlemagne existing was evidence of GMT.

The creation of the DPRK wasn't driven by Kim Il Sung's leadership in the war, or MacArthur's, or Mao's. It's post-war trajectory wasn't, either.


sure in reality Kim Il Sung wasn't a "great man". but his entire regime was founded on the lies of his greatness, his prowess in war, his supernatural powers even as the lies were more greatly exaggerated.
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Sep 14 2022 11:30am
Quote (thesnipa @ Sep 14 2022 10:27am)
sure in reality Kim Il Sung wasn't a "great man". but his entire regime was founded on the lies of his greatness, his prowess in war, his supernatural powers even as the lies were more greatly exaggerated.

It really wasn't. Korea's trajectory was decided on the other side of the planet. The internal state of the DPRK is largely a consequence of what happened there.

You really think that the DPRK today would be in the state it is without 20% of their population being slaughtered by American weapons, without the Washington-orchestrated famine after the fall of the USSR?

These things matter much more than Kim writing a book about how to direct movies.
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