Quote (NetflixAdaptationWidow @ May 3 2022 01:15pm)

Almost like Trump left the country in the shitter when he left.

No no, that can't be it. Every problem in our country had to have spawned spontaneously in the last year.

Quote (fender @ May 3 2022 01:25pm)

we both know better than to simplistically dismiss political polling, whenever it fits our chosen narrative, just because of "2016". we know the difference between early, late, and exit polls. we know the difference between popular vote and the EC. we know about margins of error and the partisan skew of different pollsters. we know the difference between dishonestly juxtaposed headlines and actual poll results. so let's just drop that silly talking point, neither of us is goon-shill. polls aren't perfect, but a reasonably big body of reasonably reliable polls is still a reasonably valid tool to consider when trying to evaluate public opinion on a given topic.

you having a different gut feeling and political opinions is a good enough and obviously perfectly valid reason. it's just that given the polls and areas of agreement regarding progressive policies as well as criticisms of the system, your actions don't make sense to ME personally. but again, if you're happy with it, if it makes sense to you, that's obviously fair enough. all i'm saying that each year the system is unchallenged by politicians who are the architects, products, or profiteers of it, it entrenches these mechanisms and the political class protecting it. it will be more difficult to change it next general election, and even more so in the following one, and "pragmatists" - no matter how they really feel about it - are helping to make it impossible to change. is that fair to say?

Quote (thesnipa @ 3 May 2022 20:38)

polls polled what people thought during the primary of Bernie vs Trump. polls didnt predict what Trump and fox news and twitter conservatives would say about Bernie if he won and made it to the general election mainstage, and how that would change polling results. whereas Biden was a more of a constant imo.

as to centrists perpetuating the system and making it more of an impossibility, id say it already is an impossibility for the most part. there's maybe a .01% chance SCOTUS at some point takes on campaign finance, and a 0% chance anyone else does. the battle for that is lost and we're just fighting for crumbs at this point. tbh the next 200 years of humankind make me rather depressed to postulate on. all i can do is teach my family to be as self reliant as possible and hope it sticks.

Quote (thesnipa @ May 3 2022 07:15am)

this is a distraction to placate right winged idiots. if i toss a bomb into a kindergarten class so i can rob a bank next door it's still a distraction even if the kids die.

my top priority for the scotus would be campaign finance reform, as its clear congress wont police itself. although im not sure at all what angle would need to be taken to accomplish it. women are indeed becoming 2nd class citizens, and so are all workers. we're staring down hundreds of millions of people losing their livelihood and we're worried about abortion becoming a state's right's issue. i'll vote against pro lifers in my state should it come to that, but no matter who i vote for i know they'll send all our jobs to china or a robot with a smile on their face for their fortune 500 overlords.

Quote (fender @ May 3 2022 02:02pm)

true, but they also didn't predict how the TV duels would have looked, when bernie could have talked about his ACTUAL platform (not the red scare tactics people were fed with), his incredibly popular stances (and importantly a decades long record to back them up), display his mental agility and clear messaging (compared to the mad ramblings of the actual two candidates). again, if it makes sense to YOU, that's obviously perfectly valid. polls aren't perfect and they can't account for every single factor - obviously. both of us are capable enough to argue in favour of the polls getting it wrong in either direction, i'm merely pointing out what they actually said, and that it's disingenuous to just dismiss them because of 2016.

you might just be right about the system already being past the point of no return, but that doesn't change the fact that it was and is perpetuated by those giving their vote to its creators / products. i'm not saying that to blame you specifically, you're obviously just one of tens of millions of votes, i'm just making an observation about the downsides of such "pragmatic" considerations. chances already being slim doesn't mean they don't get slimmer every cycle, if you know what i mean...

Quote (excellence @ May 3 2022 02:01pm)

when biden had been a senator for 10 years, he voted in favor of an amendment to overturn RvW and make it a state-level policy issue

source: NYT and biden himself

Quote (thesnipa @ 3 May 2022 21:16)

Im not dismissing them just because of 2016, i put a lot of thought into it. and with Bernie being closest to Yang in platform if i thought he had a chance to win i might even support him. or if i thought he had a chance to get his platform codified into law i may have likewise supported him. both were not possible to me.

when chances to actually fix the system were possible i wasnt of voting age, when i came of voting age i mostly voted for libertarians. ive had a better chance to make actual changes in people's lives by being an whistle blower from inside of the automation industry, most people just think im crazy though. i was calling this stuff out 5 years before mcdonalds even had order kiosks, i got a lot of "wow u were right" pms since then. people will see, ill be ready, some others will, most wont. and their kids will be state sponsored consumers following 100 influencers for a living from their couch.

Quote (thesnipa @ 3 May 2022 19:59)

my memory told me that in 2016 the polls were way off. Fool me once, shame on... shame on you. Fool me—you can't get fooled again.

Quote (fender @ May 3 2022 02:29pm)

i've told you twice before that you're obviously perfectly entitled to that opinion, i don't think i could have been any clearer on this honestly. i don't feel that either of us is being dishonest or deceptive here, we just disagree with in our evaluations of how bernie would have done. i brought up polls to support my point, but i was not the one up who brought up 2016 in the first place:

Quote

, i'm merely pointing out what they actually said, and that it's disingenuous to just dismiss them because of 2016.

Quote (thesnipa @ 3 May 2022 21:35)

yes i understand, you said:



when the rest of my post includes many other reasons i dismissed them. which is to say that i thought they were off by enough percent to change the EC total result. specifically in the midwest where we are typically progressive in a general sense but many people are super scared of "communism" at the voting booth, compared to southerners who are openly anti "communism" with bumper stickers.

polls overall imo dont handle trump matchups well, whether its 2016 primary, 2016 general, 2020 general, or 2024 and beyond. i firmly believe the silent trump vote is a real thing, and ive seen it irl talking with people countless times.

edit: im sensing you just want me to say "ok agree to disagree" which im 100% fine with. its not as if we're on topic here