+1 Well said and thank you for answering the questions I threw out there. Notice how you had to say could/may/might a lot? That's because every politician ever has to make promises/gestures/goals that align with their "political party" and then almost never come through on any of them because they as an individual and they as a "political leader" cannot do anything. Politicians speak as if there is ABSOLUTELY no way they'll bend on such and such issues and then you watch as they bend and break to the same issues we as Americans have discussed/debated attempted to address for decades.

You see a President get in and just start signing a bunch of shit into law but it's never "game changing" laws because they are bound by that exact same system(checks and balances) and therefore are just a puppet to the "greater governing body". This greater governing body is not bound by the "Constitution" it slowly erodes it.

Our rights as citizens of the United States are not even rights they are privileges and they can be revoked at any time by force or just out right lies and tomfoolery.

No matter who gets into the White House next January they will do ZILCH/NOTTA but MSM will praise all their accomplishments. The accomplishments that never come.

I'm not saying you or others posting here "buy into the garbage". You aren't dumb and know these things to be true. What I'm saying is that it's much better to be involved in your local politics then to cast a red/blue vote every 4 years.

Having lived in the same suburb of Chicago most my life I've seen politics destroy the city I was born in. I've seen the same people Obama/Clinton/Pritzker/Blagoyevich receive praise even though their actions are morally repulsive.

When my parents chose to move out to the suburbs away from the city so me and my sisters could get a better education and not be caught up in the politics/drugs/poverty associated with the city it was what they say was the "best decision they ever made".

I was able to build a lawn maintenance business from the age of 13-25 and make a substantial amount of money. Enough to where I haven't "worked" in 5 years. I've traveled the world with a philosophical society in the time between and during those years I only heard "Trump/Biden" get brought up by family at gatherings like Thanksgiving/Christmas. I ignore it. I shut my mind off to it. It's pointless and even speaking of it puts a toxic taste in my mouth.

No politician prevented me from going door to door asking if I could cut someones grass. The price of gasoline never affected my bottom line. The cost of labor was never so high I couldn't call someone (friend/other) and say "Hey want to cut grass with me today I'll pay you 20 cash an hour". I was able to scale up from a few family/friends to over 350 clients(residential/commercial) and then the grind of cutting grass 60-80 hours a week took its toll and I sold my clients to a larger landscaper.

I've been able to live the "American Dream" and I'm only 34. If I died tomorrow I'd feel like I lived a good life. Politics doesn't play the role people chalk it up too playing.

If people stopped making excuses for inherently corrupt individuals(politicians) they would then take the time to create solutions that solve the problems they face in their day-to-day activities.

In actuality its only you to blame. You can only blame yourself for allowing people in Washington to make you feel some "type of way".

Just like you and everyone else posting in here we've all busted our asses to get where we are at. We're going to have to bust our asses even more because "politicians" will never relieve us of that burden.

That's how they continue to manipulate the masses. Keep busting your asses "middle class" so you never have the time to come together and throw all of us out on our asses.

In Chicago political corruption is so normal that Chicagoans and suburbanites just chalk it up to "business as usual". That's sad as fuck that they beat down the boomer generation so bad that they've literally "given up" on the "political process".

I don't see the "hope and change" Obama talked about when I was 18-19 years old. So what's changed in 15 years?

Trump supporters shitting their pants. This could get very interesting.

forgot every election year dormant accounts get purchased to spam all corners of the internet

The Biden-Harris administration "paroled" well over a million inadmissible immigrants under a novel and unprecedented application of US parole authority. There neither was nor is any need for congressional action to prevent that, the Biden-Harris administration could simply have elected not to release millions into the United States, as Trump/Obama/Bush/Clinton(etc) all elected not to do in turn.

On the bill specifically...
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Page 62 provides $440 million over 2.5 years for more immigration judges

Page 64 earmarks $210 million for detention and $204 million for the FBI to analyze DNA.

Page 66 grants $33 million to monitor/report:/project migration flows.

Page 67 earmarks $6.0 billion over 2.5 years for broad objectives including counter-fentanyl activities, migration surges, port of entry expenses (i.e. to allow more migrants in), and reimbursing the DoD for costs already incurred. Only ~$500 million is earmarked for more border personnel, and $1.4 billion is to be transferred to FEMA in order to bail out Democratic cities for migrant sheltering costs and related activities.

Pages 68-69 earmarks $424 million for "non-intrusive inspection technology", and $260 for border security technology. An additional $3.2 billion for detention centers, $2.5 billion for flights, and $534 million for ICE hiring. Another $1.3 billion for expanding non-detention diversion. Finally another $100 million earmarked to FEMA, of which at least 25% must flow to non-southern border states.

Page 70 provides $4 billion for expanded immigration and citizenship services.

Page 82 clarifies that the vast majority of net new hires will be for asylum processing, not border control and enforcement.

Page 84 gives HHS $350 million in giveaways to states and NGOs for asylum resettlement.

Page 85 provides $1.2 billion for international economic aid within the Western hemisphere. Page 86 clarifies that only $185 million of that total need to be for reducing irregular migration.

Pages 115-120 codify the practice of releasing from custody those who "indicate an intention to apply for a protection determination" or express a "credible fear" of persecution. The Secretary will "serve notice" to the alien or their "counsel of record", except obviously in scenarios where the alien can no longer be found. The alien is to be reminded of their obligation to update the Secretary on mailing and telephone changes. If the alien decides to ignore these obligations, they'll be in violation of statutes which the Biden-Harris admin has in turn deprioritized for deportation. In short, once in there's no reasonable expectation that they'll be removed.

On page 203 of the "Border Bill", the definition of a credible asylum claim is changed from "significant possibility" to "reasonable possibility" of persecution.

On pages 205-211 the "emergency authority" carves out specific exceptions which include "reasonable possibility" of persecution, and gives the government broad latitude to ignore summary deportation for reasons as mundane as "operational considerations". On page 207, it's explicitly stated that the emergency authority does not prevent aliens from seeking asylum at a port of entry. Circle back to the first paragraph, allow mass entry of "asylum" claimants, the vast majority of whom will be rejected, and then deprioritize deportation so that they stay once admitted.

On page 212, the Secretary is only required to declare a state of emergency authority if the number of crossings over a 7-day span average 5,000 or more. That equates to 1,825,000 annually. On pages 212-213, only encounters between ports of entry are included in the 1,825,000 annual figure.

Pages 213-214, the Secretary shall suspend the emergency authority when rates fall below 75% of the activation level, or 1,368,750 annually.

Page 219 grants the President the authority to suspend any emergency on "national interest" grounds for a period of 45 days per calendar year.

Page 224 (re)clarifies that this only applies within 100 miles of the border, illegal migrants who make it north ~2 hours by bus are home free.

Excellent post, friend! Nothing like an election to bring out new people far and wide.

Your 2004 account would be of high value, but nothing is as valuable as actually having you here.

Thank you my friend! Hope all is well in your world!

I see big headlines that Trump leading in recent polls.
I check.
Its 1605 people in this poll.
Good for you guys in the US to do these massive polls and splash the number on headlines. TRUMP IS LEADING YOU GUYS, WE'VE ASKED A TOTAL OF 1605 people out of 155 million who voted last year, I only assume this is the number of people who will vote in next election, give or take some, equivalent to what, 0,00001%

kek indeed, mr USA country

You're struggling with the concept of "margin of error". Individual polls can be very unreliable, but when you aggregate the results of many polls the results are significantly more predictive than a singular poll on its own. The track record for poll of polls has been pretty good over the last few years. In 2022 RCP had the GCB +2.5 for Republicans, and they finished +2.8. 2020 was probably the biggest miss, as pollsters collectively underestimated Trump's support by ~3 points.

It's reinforced by other polls though. Do you understand basic statistics though? You don't need a sample of n=155million to get somewhat accurate results. Even when your sample size is n=1000, your margin of error falls to about 3%

This post was edited by ofthevoid on Jul 24 2024 12:20pm

I'm not an expert on American politics so correct me if I'm wrong, but don't typically red states have a lower number of voters and are overweighted in electoral college votes, so if there's a poll where it's close e.g. Harris 44% Trump 42%, with that represented in the actual election then Trump would still probably win the race?

This post was edited by dro94 on Jul 24 2024 12:44pm