Quote (NetflixAdaptationWidow @ 25 May 2022 00:14)
Oil companies are actively avoiding doing more drilling because they know green solutions are the long term. So they are returning capital in the form of dividends instead of investing in long term drilling projects.
There are tons of applications where renewables will not be able to replace oil or natural gas for the forseeable future. Also, demanding that fossils have a share of zero within the energy mix of the future is very much a political decision, not an economic inevitability.
So yes, the political environment does play a role in the oil producers' long-term outlook and no, the world will not move on from fossils within the timeframe (10-15 years) it would take for current drilling project to pay back.
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It's also just not trivial to ramp production on existing sites. It takes 6 to 12 months for even opec to follow through with changes to quotas. And they tend to have the easier time than things like shael oil
The recovery of the global economy from the covid crisis started in the spring of 2021, more than 12 months ago. Also, OPEC is deliberately not ramping up production because they enjoy the leverage they currently have. Too bad the man in the White House is someone whose phone calls aren't even picked up in Riyadh or Dubai, while his predecessor had a great working relationship with Saudi Arabia and helped them negotiate historic peace treaties.