Quote (dro94 @ Mar 22 2020 08:31am)

I read the original post on medium and there were some real flaws to the piece. Off the top of my head:

First of all, they are judging the virus on the past and present effects it has caused, and not the potential devastating impact it will have if it continues to spread.

The second point is that the virus isn't accelerating in spread currently due to extreme measures taken by countries, including full lockdowns, resulting in a massive loss to the economy.

The third is that even after these lockdown measures are relaxed, the science says it's highly likely there will be second third and fourth waves of infection as community spread increases.

How will COVID-19 burn off in the summer if hot countries like Mayalsia and Australia are experienced a high volume of new cases and community transmission? The spread of the virus doesn't appear to be as contagious in hotter climates but I'm concerned by the fact it's still doing so fast. Does that mean we'll get another severe outbreak come December?

Quote (Santara @ Mar 22 2020 01:37pm)

But the article points to South Korea as an example that the virus can be fought without resulting to draconian measures. Yes, we expect it to continue, but the dangers of children going to school certainly appear to be overstated.

Again South Korea. Aggressive testing and contact tracing.

Yes, I agree, but if we can cope with better tactics until a vaccine is hopefully approved, given how long this is likely to last, we need a better way forward.

Quote (fender @ 22 Mar 2020 07:29)

well, the increasing number of officially confirmed cases clearly suggests the US ramped up testing. apparently there is a severe shortage of reliable tests in virtually every state, but yeah, technically there ARE tests.
and to be fair, even though many nations seem to have severely underestimated the threat (at least partly by valuing the economy over human life), and south korea deserves all the praise they get for handling this issue, we should not forget that they did have a certain infrastructural advantage and preparedness when it comes to virus testing, due to their previous experience with MERS, and generally outstanding healthcare system.

Quote

Countries can not simply lockdown their societies to defeat coronavirus, the World Health Organization's top emergency expert said, adding that public health measures are needed to avoid a resurgence of the virus later on.

Dr Mike Ryan said: "What we really need to focus on is finding those who are sick, those who have the virus, and isolate them, find their contacts and isolate them," in an interview on the BBC's Andrew Marr Show.

"The danger right now with the lockdowns ... if we don't put in place the strong public health measures now, when those movement restrictions and lockdowns are lifted, the danger is the disease will jump back up."

Much of Europe and the United States have followed China and other Asian countries and introduced drastic restrictions to fight the new coronavirus, with most workers told to work from home and schools, bars, pubs and restaurants being closed.

Mr Ryan said that the examples of China, Singapore and South Korea, which coupled restrictions with rigorous measures to test every possible suspect, provided a model for Europe, which the WHO has said has replaced Asia as the epicentre of the pandemic.

"Once we've suppressed the transmission, we have to go after the virus. We have to take the fight to the virus," Mr Ryan said.

Italy is now the worst hit country in the world by the virus, and UK Prime Minister Boris Johnson has warned that Britain's health system could be overwhelmed unless people avoid social interactions.

Mr Ryan also said that several vaccines were in development, but only one had begun trials in the United States.

Asked how long it would take before there was a vaccine available in Britain, he said that people needed to be realistic.

"We have to make sure that it's absolutely safe... we are talking at least a year," he said. "The vaccines will come, but we need to get out and do what we need to do now."

Quote (balrog66 @ 22 Mar 2020 15:43)

WHO is no longer in favour of lockdown:

https://www.rte.ie/news/2020/0322/1124657-who-coronavirus/

Quote (inkanddagger @ Mar 22 2020 01:06am)

Do we even have tests? I don’t know a single person who has been able to find one.

Quote (balrog66 @ 22 Mar 2020 15:43)

WHO is no longer in favour of lockdown:

https://www.rte.ie/news/2020/0322/1124657-who-coronavirus/

Quote (Black XistenZ @ 22 Mar 2020 15:48)

Uh, actually, this article does NOT say that the WHO is against lockdowns. What the WHO is saying is that lockdowns alone will not be sufficient, and that the affected countries should prepare their measures for the day when lockdowns will inevitably have to be lifted.

Quote (Goomshill @ Mar 22 2020 08:13am)

I read that article, then I read the pieces by twitter critics claiming to 'debunk' that article, like this;
https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1241522140559503360.html

I found the fact and evidence and logic-based reasoning in the article a whole fucking lot more compelling than the snide commentary, quibbles over form and straw man arguments in that criticism. Not to mention overt political grievance.
I can't say that the zerohedge take is necessarily right, but I judge it by the enemies it has made.

Quote (Goomshill @ Mar 22 2020 12:33am)

Do you think coronavirus will be a campaign issue? because if it is, we'll be bombarded with messaging reminding us what was said in the initial days/weeks/months.
Even if everyone would have forgotten otherwise, those tweets will get dredged up

Quote (thundercock @ Mar 22 2020 12:05pm)

It probably will be an issue but I don't think anyone's minds will be changed. Trump has his 40% and so does Biden. The remaining 20% are either extremely ignorant, lean one way and are unlikely to change their minds, etc.-

I think the biggest threat to the Trump presidency will be the virus subsiding in the summer for a bit and then coming back with a vengeance in the autumn. Ideally, the administration will have months to prepare for it but who knows?