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Jul 12 2026 12:39pm


Is Iran safe for jews? They are safe from Iranians is all..
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Jul 16 2026 01:28pm
GOP love this for the US. America last.

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Jul 16 2026 06:45pm
What does Israel even have to do with the recent flare-up of hostilities?

Iran attacked commercial ships in international/Omani waters because they want to assert their control over the entire Strait of Hormuz with naked force, although such a claim violates international as well as maritime law, the MoU as well as basic morals and common sense. The US (and also some of the affected Gulf states) began shelling targets in Iran again in response to these attacks; from there, the ceasefire collapsed.

The Iranians had gotten a comparatively good deal in the MoU and realistically only needed to sit tight until midterm season was in full swing. Instead, they overplayed their hand and threw it all away because they got greedy. Whichever IRGC hardliner made the decision to try to get away with acting like despicable pirates miscalculated badly.
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Jul 17 2026 11:13am
What does Israel even have to do with the recent flare-up of hostilities?

Iran attacked commercial ships in international/Omani waters because they want to assert their control over the entire Strait of Hormuz with naked force, although such a claim violates international as well as maritime law, the MoU as well as basic morals and common sense. The US (and also some of the affected Gulf states) began shelling targets in Iran again in response to these attacks; from there, the ceasefire collapsed.

The Iranians had gotten a comparatively good deal in the MoU and realistically only needed to sit tight until midterm season was in full swing. Instead, they overplayed their hand and threw it all away because they got greedy. Whichever IRGC hardliner made the decision to try to get away with acting like despicable pirates miscalculated badly.


Dear oh Dear. OK here we go:

What does Israel even have to do with the recent flare-up of hostilities ?

In June 2026 a Memorandum of Understanding (MoU) came into play between the US and Iran. Critically and for no credible reason, Israel was not included in this MoU. However, the MoU explicitly included Lebanon. i.e. Israel needed to stop bombing and military operations in Lebanon for the MoU to hold. As has been repeatedly highlight (in the relevant thread(s)) Israel is NOT a party to the MOU, did not cease its military campaign, and, in addition, drew up a new Map of the region 1 day before the MOU came into effect.

Israel kept striking Lebanon, killing a lot of people, applying scorched earth tactics and poisoning the land while refusing to relent and claiming more land. Iran's official statements explicitly cite "Israel's continued attacks on Lebanon" as the violation that triggered the Strait's re-closure. The Iranian Foreign Ministry stated that a "violation of the ceasefire on any front constitutes a violation of the ceasefire on all fronts"

Iran closed the Strait not because they "got greedy" or wanted to "assert control," but because the US, which was a party to the MoU, failed to deliver on its end: stopping Israel. The US could not or would not rein in Israel, so Iran responded by closing the Strait.

2025 Country A Attacks Country B because Country C asked.
2025 Country A and Country C attack Country B together.
2025 6 months later Country A and Country C try to destabilise Country B's government by carrying out an economic attack on Country B.
2026 A few months later Country A and Country C again attack Country B, killing the (fairly moderate) religious leader along with all the moderate leaders.
2026 Country B retaliates. As part of this retaliation, it closes a shipping route (the Straight).
2026 This closure hurts the global economy, culminating in a deal between Country A and Country B. Country C is not a party to the deal.
2026 Country B tells Country A that Country C's actions are breaking the deal between Country A and Country B
2026 Country A refuses to reign in Country C.

If you want the straight open, Country C needs to stop bombing Lebanon. If you do not understand this that is not my problem.

So when you say "Instead, they overplayed their hand and threw it all away because they got greedy." the reality is, if Iran did not close the straight, they would lose all their credibility.

This post was edited by ferdia on Jul 17 2026 11:39am
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Jul 17 2026 12:04pm
Dear oh Dear. OK here we go:

What does Israel even have to do with the recent flare-up of hostilities ?

In June 2026 a Memorandum of Understanding (MoU) came into play between the US and Iran. Critically and for no credible reason, Israel was not included in this MoU. However, the MoU explicitly included Lebanon. i.e. Israel needed to stop bombing and military operations in Lebanon for the MoU to hold. As has been repeatedly highlight (in the relevant thread(s)) Israel is NOT a party to the MOU, did not cease its military campaign, and, in addition, drew up a new Map of the region 1 day before the MOU came into effect.

Israel kept striking Lebanon, killing a lot of people, applying scorched earth tactics and poisoning the land while refusing to relent and claiming more land. Iran's official statements explicitly cite "Israel's continued attacks on Lebanon" as the violation that triggered the Strait's re-closure. The Iranian Foreign Ministry stated that a "violation of the ceasefire on any front constitutes a violation of the ceasefire on all fronts"

Iran closed the Strait not because they "got greedy" or wanted to "assert control," but because the US, which was a party to the MoU, failed to deliver on its end: stopping Israel. The US could not or would not rein in Israel, so Iran responded by closing the Strait.

2025 Country A Attacks Country B because Country C asked.
2025 Country A and Country C attack Country B together.
2025 6 months later Country A and Country C try to destabilise Country B's government by carrying out an economic attack on Country B.
2026 A few months later Country A and Country C again attack Country B, killing the (fairly moderate) religious leader along with all the moderate leaders.
2026 Country B retaliates. As part of this retaliation, it closes a shipping route (the Straight).
2026 This closure hurts the global economy, culminating in a deal between Country A and Country B. Country C is not a party to the deal.
2026 Country B tells Country A that Country C's actions are breaking the deal between Country A and Country B
2026 Country A refuses to reign in Country C.

If you want the straight open, Country C needs to stop bombing Lebanon. If you do not understand this that is not my problem.

So when you say "Instead, they overplayed their hand and threw it all away because they got greedy." the reality is, if Iran did not close the straight, they would lose all their credibility.


It also highlights blatant hypocrisy from Israel.

When missiles are fired from Lebanon they say that proxies are acting at the direct behest of Iran. And therefore Iran is the real master whom they are at war with. But when the USA is trying to broker a peace agreement on behalf of Israel with Iran, Israel strikes Lebanon and says basically "well we're not striking Iran, so it's no big deal".

so when on defense Lebannon=Iran, but when on offense Lebannon=/=Iran.
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Jul 17 2026 12:19pm
It also highlights blatant hypocrisy from Israel.

When missiles are fired from Lebanon they say that proxies are acting at the direct behest of Iran. And therefore Iran is the real master whom they are at war with. But when the USA is trying to broker a peace agreement on behalf of Israel with Iran, Israel strikes Lebanon and says basically "well we're not striking Iran, so it's no big deal".

so when on defense Lebannon=Iran, but when on offense Lebannon=/=Iran.


pretty much sums it up. rules for thee but not for me.
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Jul 17 2026 01:07pm
Israel kept striking Lebanon, killing a lot of people, applying scorched earth tactics and poisoning the land while refusing to relent and claiming more land. Iran's official statements explicitly cite "Israel's continued attacks on Lebanon" as the violation that triggered the Strait's re-closure. The Iranian Foreign Ministry stated that a "violation of the ceasefire on any front constitutes a violation of the ceasefire on all fronts"

Iran closed the Strait not because they "got greedy" or wanted to "assert control," but because the US, which was a party to the MoU, failed to deliver on its end: stopping Israel. The US could not or would not rein in Israel, so Iran responded by closing the Strait.



I just made a good-faith effort to read up on this official statement and couldn't find anything?! Do you have a source for the bolded claim? From everything I remember when it happened two weeks ago, and everything I dug up in the sources when I just googled it, Iran did not declare the Strait closed before it resumed the attacks on commercial ships in Omani waters on July 7. Instead, they explained their actions with the fact that the ships had not complied with the Iranian demands for all ships passing the Strait to register and get permission from Iran beforehand. (Iran is categorically and undoubtedly not entitled to exert any control over Omani territorial waters!)

See here, for example:
https://edition.cnn.com/2026/07/11/world/live-news/iran-war-trump?post-id=cmrgy8y4g00003j6whi8grsyn

Quote
In a statement carried by the Arabic-language website of the semi-official, IRGC-affiliated Tasnim News Agency, the IRGC decried what it referred to as “outside interference from foreign powers” in the form of several shipping vessels attempting to cross the Strait via “unauthorized routes.” The statement singled out a recent incident in which the IRGC fired warning shots at one such vessel.

“Given the precariousness that was caused by this unlawful interference by outside parties, the Strait of Hormuz is to be closed until further notice and until regional interference by the US ceases,” the statement reads. “No vessel or naval craft will be allowed to pass.”


No word about Israel/Lebanon as the root cause. Generally speaking, if Iran considered the MoU null and void due to Washington's failure to rein in Israel, they should/would have announced that publicly before attacking ships of third parties in Omani waters.

And lo and behold, other countries are increasingly running out of patience and call Iran out for these attacks, calling them "brazen" and recording their "strong protest":
https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c8d2vn38dy1o
https://www.nytimes.com/2026/07/14/world/middleeast/iran-killed-indian-sailors.html

Note that these articles are again citing the Iranian side as saying that these ships' failure to follow Iran's "authorized routes" was the reason for attacking them.

This post was edited by Black XistenZ on Jul 17 2026 01:08pm
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Jul 17 2026 02:23pm
I just made a good-faith effort to read up on this official statement and couldn't find anything?! Do you have a source for the bolded claim? From everything I remember when it happened two weeks ago, and everything I dug up in the sources when I just googled it, Iran did not declare the Strait closed before it resumed the attacks on commercial ships in Omani waters on July 7. Instead, they explained their actions with the fact that the ships had not complied with the Iranian demands for all ships passing the Strait to register and get permission from Iran beforehand. (Iran is categorically and undoubtedly not entitled to exert any control over Omani territorial waters!)

See here, for example:
https://edition.cnn.com/2026/07/11/world/live-news/iran-war-trump?post-id=cmrgy8y4g00003j6whi8grsyn



No word about Israel/Lebanon as the root cause. Generally speaking, if Iran considered the MoU null and void due to Washington's failure to rein in Israel, they should/would have announced that publicly before attacking ships of third parties in Omani waters.

And lo and behold, other countries are increasingly running out of patience and call Iran out for these attacks, calling them "brazen" and recording their "strong protest":
https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c8d2vn38dy1o
https://www.nytimes.com/2026/07/14/world/middleeast/iran-killed-indian-sailors.html

Note that these articles are again citing the Iranian side as saying that these ships' failure to follow Iran's "authorized routes" was the reason for attacking them.


again, i clearly said: If you do not understand this that is not my problem.
Your argument is not sound, your ignoring the facts, noting Iran was very clear on day 1 of the MoU. Your entire narrative is Iran bad, they have to do ABC for them to be good, when in fact, there was a deal, which the US (via Israel) BROKE. Iran can not simply let Israel continue to wage war in Lebanon and it is using the Straight to stress that point.

This post was edited by ferdia on Jul 17 2026 02:42pm
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Jul 18 2026 03:33pm
again, i clearly said: If you do not understand this that is not my problem.
Your argument is not sound, your ignoring the facts, noting Iran was very clear on day 1 of the MoU. Your entire narrative is Iran bad, they have to do ABC for them to be good, when in fact, there was a deal, which the US (via Israel) BROKE. Iran can not simply let Israel continue to wage war in Lebanon and it is using the Straight to stress that point.


I pointed out that in the sources I could find, Iran didn't mention Israel/Lebanon one time when they resumed their attacks on commercial ships and instead cited those ships using "unauthorized routes" as their motivation. You made an unequivocal claim to the opposite: "Iran's official statements explicitly cite "Israel's continued attacks on Lebanon" as the violation that triggered the Strait's re-closure.", for which I somehow couldn't find any sources.

If you make such a strong statement, it shouldn't be difficult for you to provide a source for such an "official statement" by Iran which "explicitly cites Israel/Lebanon" as the reason for their attacks on those ships. And note that I, unlike you, did provide sources corroborating my perspective.

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Jul 18 2026 05:08pm
I pointed out that in the sources I could find, Iran didn't mention Israel/Lebanon one time when they resumed their attacks on commercial ships and instead cited those ships using "unauthorized routes" as their motivation. You made an unequivocal claim to the opposite: "Iran's official statements explicitly cite "Israel's continued attacks on Lebanon" as the violation that triggered the Strait's re-closure.", for which I somehow couldn't find any sources.

If you make such a strong statement, it shouldn't be difficult for you to provide a source for such an "official statement" by Iran which "explicitly cites Israel/Lebanon" as the reason for their attacks on those ships. And note that I, unlike you, did provide sources corroborating my perspective.


I simply do not understand your train of thought. We both have the same information, here and in the Russia topic, but your conclusions just dont make sense and are not logical. You have been debating either in the Israel topic or the Russia topic with me for years now. Yes you may be ideological, but surely you dont actually believe this narrative you are spinning ? And yet I am reminded of the Nord Stream debate. Anyway, I have sources for my statements. here you go:

1. Iranian Ministry of Foreign Affairs, July 11th 2026 - explicitly references Israel's violations of the April 8, 2026 ceasefire agreement in Lebanon.
2. BBC, June 21st 2026 - "Iran said Israel's continued attacks in Lebanon are a breach of Tehran's agreement with the US to end the war... The Iranian military accused the US of violating the US-Iran deal by not implementing the first clause in the 14-point memorandum of understanding, which agrees to 'the immediate and permanent termination of military operations on all fronts, including in Lebanon'."
3. IRGC, June 20th 2026 - "In response to the continuous and relentless violations of the ceasefire by the Zionist regime in southern Lebanon, which have resulted in the brutal killing and displacement of hundreds of thousands of innocent people... it is announced that the Strait of Hormuz will be closed to vessel traffic."
4. The Times of India, June 20th 2026 - "Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) Navy... cited Israeli actions in Lebanon and Washington's violation of its ceasefire commitments as the reason behind Tehran's closure of the Strait of Hormuz."

The memorandum of understand was the framework. If Israel continued bombing Lebanon after July 11, which they did, then every subsequent Iranian action is operating within that framework. Again your argument is very far fetched.

This post was edited by ferdia on Jul 18 2026 05:12pm
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