What does Israel even have to do with the recent flare-up of hostilities?
Iran attacked commercial ships in international/Omani waters because they want to assert their control over the entire Strait of Hormuz with naked force, although such a claim violates international as well as maritime law, the MoU as well as basic morals and common sense. The US (and also some of the affected Gulf states) began shelling targets in Iran again in response to these attacks; from there, the ceasefire collapsed.
The Iranians had gotten a comparatively good deal in the MoU and realistically only needed to sit tight until midterm season was in full swing. Instead, they overplayed their hand and threw it all away because they got greedy. Whichever IRGC hardliner made the decision to try to get away with acting like despicable pirates miscalculated badly.
Dear oh Dear. OK here we go:
What does Israel even have to do with the recent flare-up of hostilities ?
In June 2026 a Memorandum of Understanding (MoU) came into play between the US and Iran. Critically and for no credible reason, Israel was not included in this MoU. However, the MoU explicitly included Lebanon. i.e. Israel needed to stop bombing and military operations in Lebanon for the MoU to hold. As has been repeatedly highlight (in the relevant thread(s)) Israel is NOT a party to the MOU, did not cease its military campaign, and, in addition, drew up a new Map of the region 1 day before the MOU came into effect.
Israel kept striking Lebanon, killing a lot of people, applying scorched earth tactics and poisoning the land while refusing to relent and claiming more land. Iran's official statements explicitly cite "Israel's continued attacks on Lebanon" as the violation that triggered the Strait's re-closure. The Iranian Foreign Ministry stated that a "violation of the ceasefire on any front constitutes a violation of the ceasefire on all fronts"
Iran closed the Strait not because they "got greedy" or wanted to "assert control," but because the US, which was a party to the MoU, failed to deliver on its end: stopping Israel. The US could not or would not rein in Israel, so Iran responded by closing the Strait.
2025 Country A Attacks Country B because Country C asked.
2025 Country A and Country C attack Country B together.
2025 6 months later Country A and Country C try to destabilise Country B's government by carrying out an economic attack on Country B.
2026 A few months later Country A and Country C again attack Country B, killing the (fairly moderate) religious leader along with all the moderate leaders.
2026 Country B retaliates. As part of this retaliation, it closes a shipping route (the Straight).
2026 This closure hurts the global economy, culminating in a deal between Country A and Country B. Country C is not a party to the deal.
2026 Country B tells Country A that Country C's actions are breaking the deal between Country A and Country B
2026 Country A refuses to reign in Country C.
If you want the straight open, Country C needs to stop bombing Lebanon. If you do not understand this that is not my problem.
So when you say "Instead, they overplayed their hand and threw it all away because they got greedy." the reality is, if Iran did not close the straight, they would lose all their credibility.
This post was edited by ferdia on Jul 17 2026 11:39am