Hey mate I am curious about your opinion from a banking point of view.

i.e

1. what does the some of your financial institution thinks about the Chinese market in the next coming 10 to 15 years.
2. Risk of investments

etc etc

Let me edit a little

IMF predicts 3.2 % Growth
Goldman Sachs predict around 4%

And my favorite dude Ray Dalio from Bridgewaters associate believes longer term picture is still bright.

This post was edited by Hamsterbaby on Jan 9 2023 04:11pm

I work on North American commercial banks exclusively (very different structurally in what they can do compared to investment banks like goldman) . These entities typically are very highly regulated because of their role in the economy so their balance sheet have little to no China exposure its mostly domestic loans in real estate, commercial real estate, C&I, etc. From my works perspective i have no knowledge on China but i would say from a general credit risk perspective, if you have a ton of China exposure right now in various types of investments at an institutional level it's scary imo, especially with what happened with Russia in the last 12 months. The bigger deal is not their growth, it's the fact that regulators or geopolitical risk can wipe you out if something happens.

This post was edited by ofthevoid on Jan 9 2023 04:33pm

Agree.... waiting for Hong Kong real estate to tank if they surround Taiwan.

i tend to agree, but they do also seem to be lagging behind in some sectors. but i chalk that up to specialization, they're the leaders in cheap goods, so why also try to reverse engineer and produce a variety of high tech when you can buy it instead.

i dont think they face doom and gloom, or at least i hope they dont as that millions dead. but i do think they're facing a very serious economic downturn, for a variety of reasons. and their social engineering isnt making it better, it makes it worse.

Watch this. And Ferdia I think I have spoken to you about this before a few months back.
Now you know why America has made China her enemy.

I just came across this video and I think it explains pretty well.

Honestly....when Americans get money hungry they invade other weak countries or rip-off the Middle East....what's it going to be this time perverted uncle sam?.....lol haha

Chinese Balloon over the US.

what the US should have done : blow it out of the sky, complain to China. build a bridge and move on.
what the US has done: advertised this to all its allies, made it front page news in ireland, england, france, etc. NOT blown it out of the sky and instead advertised it.

discuss.

Not everyone is praising Chinese inhuman regime like you.

where am i praising it ? if you need to have an operation, and you have money, the best place in the world to go is china. I assume you know the reason why this is the case? how can anyone praise that lol.
not liking a regime is one thing but nuclear superpowers clashing is the last thing most sane people want to read about.

This post was edited by ferdia on Feb 3 2023 04:30pm

China is done for thankfully, within 10-20 years.

Birth rate has been dropping rapidly since the early 90s in China. They have lied about population, and because of the one child policy China has more people in their 60s than 50s...than 40s, 30s, 20s...and so on.
News flash: males can't have children on their own.
Mexican labor is more skilled and has 1/3rd the cost of Chinese labor.
The tech barricades imposed on China prevents them from purchasing the tech tools and software necessary to manufacture semiconductors.

https://www.piie.com/blogs/realtime-economics/national-security-semiconductors-and-us-move-cut-china

Tech has stalled in China. They don't have the young people to replace the old.
China is the world's largest importer of food and energy.
China will not invade tiawan because the sanctions that would be imposed (look at russia) would wipe them out in less than a year.
Plus, China taking tiawan doesn't solve their energy and food shortage crisis. If things takes all the semiconductor factories in tiawan, they don't know how to operate them.
China is done for, because of their leader Xi.


This post was edited by said_aouita on Feb 3 2023 04:56pm