Quote (Goomshill @ Aug 4 2022 10:23am)
We've had recessions before and we'll have recessions again, Saudis will drop their production when recessions hit full swing and bring it up again after. I don't see how its different now than the last few
Quote (Black XistenZ @ Aug 4 2022 10:35am)
I think he assumes that the transition to green energy is imminent and will curb demand for oil once the global economy recovers.
Not only is the technology not ready yet for this to happen at a large scale, it also misses the fact that the global population is still growing rapidly, the emerging middle classes in much of the global south are settling into a more energy-hungry lifestyle and the industrialization in the third world is also picking up pace. Snipa is right that global demand for oil (and other fossil energies) will eventually hit a peak and then come down - I just think that he's off by at least 15-25 years. Global oil demand isn't gonna hit a cliff in 4-6 years, it's gonna be in ~20 years at the earliest.
EVs will follow the same path in the long run that smart phones did. we had only iphones (as we have only tesla), we didnt have infrastructure to necessitate smart phones they were just fancy toys, a few competitors of lower quality emerged, and some 15 years later smart phones went from a regular phone with a camera and spotty email access to a daily necessity of almost every person in the entire world. we now have 3rd world citizens carrying smart phones that didnt even have electricity when the iphone hit the market.
demand, technology and infrastructure always hits a tipping point and the advancements come at a speed and scale no one during the run up thought was possible.
i think in reality in 5 years from now to a period of 15 years from now we'll see 1st world demand drop drastically while 3rd world demand increases, offsetting each other, then we'll see 2nd then 3rd world demand drop off. it wont be as much of a peak as a mesa.