You know what they say.. correlation does imply causation!

So you basically agree with my point that a negotiated peace, at this point in time, would involve Ukraine having to cede FAR more than just the Donbas.


I, personally, don't see Putin ever pushing into Poland or Romania. Poland's military is stronger than Ukraine's, and would receive far more full-throttled support from its NATO allies. So even under an isolationist US administration which doesn't want to deploy US troops to come to their aid, they would still be a significantly tougher nut to crack than Ukraine was - and Ukraine already took them 2.5++ years. Aaand the distance from Russia and thus the logistics would be far more challenging. So yeah, the most I can see Russia doing if it wins in Ukraine is annex the Baltics in a moment of NATO weakness, and annex Moldova. Would be bad PR for NATO, but surely not the end of the world from a strategic point of view.

I absolutely do agree with that, the notion that Russia would enter a peace deal with no additional perks and a freezing of the lines is a bit silly, one of their demands is regime change & justice brought to the Ukrainian Nazis

I think your view is very pragmatic here, Russia could not break Poland if they tried unless the situation in EU/USA was entirely different. Moldova in possible, the Baltics would be awful in my mind and would sour my opinion of Russia since I view the Baltics as Germanic states. But they hate the Russians more than anyone and have strong public support across the West which could deter Russia.

This post was edited by El1te on Sep 9 2024 04:47pm

Do you really think Ukrainian people are going to return to Ukraine after being Russian People?

(I believe Ukrainians are Russians and I never cared about Ukraine.)

I'm not sure what you mean, that self identified Ukrainians in Russian-controlled areas will migrate to a theoretical West Ukraine after the conflict?

Do you think those who fled Ukraine will go back to Ukraine if the war ended this second.

My answer to that is No they wont, they enjoy the freedoms the rest of the world has.
Now that they've fled the russian thumb.

This post was edited by Mondain on Sep 9 2024 04:55pm

lol
k
ggz

This post was edited by 18nomaUSEast on Sep 9 2024 04:57pm

Oh okay, I think alot of them would, most people don't want to leave their home family & roots, even if it will be under Russian administration

But alot of them have had enough time to settle in other places and won't return, depending on how much they like their new residence

Some people who want to return might not because of a fear of war breaking out again, it's really hard to say

This post was edited by El1te on Sep 9 2024 04:59pm

A very recent survey from Austria (a mini-Germany, just with more mountains and incest) is quite illuminating in this regard:
https://orf.at/stories/3368604/

54% of the interviewed Ukrainian refugees living in Austria said they would "surely not" or "rather not" return to Ukraine while only 3% have "concrete plans" to return. In 2023, there were still 13% with concrete return plans, in 2022, the number was 30%.

Lol a country invaded its own territory to get rid of terrorist hotspot/separatists. If Michigan or a part of Germany that's predominantly habibis ruled by Islamists tried to secede what should the response be? I'd probably leave that one off the list next time.



kek

I've been predicting that trend for 2 years now. It's only going to get worse. I know a fair amount of Ukrainians that recently came to US and non have the intention to go back.

This post was edited by ofthevoid on Sep 9 2024 05:14pm