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Aug 6 2020 09:31am
Quote (EA7 @ Aug 6 2020 07:42am)
You make some good points, but I do think the polls are off by a decent margin either way. Not as much as in 2016, but definitely very heavily biased towards Biden. The journalists you mention haven't changed at all, nor have they learned from their complacency.

Trump was honestly in deep trouble if the Democrats got their shit together and had a credible candidate. Instead the blatant race baiting and outright lies used to fuel the riots have made average Americans hate liberals and the MSM.

Very few people are arguing that Trump is the best president of all time, but he is a symbol and a massive FUCK YOU to the haughty upper class liberals and fraudulent media. Also, how much of a coincidence is it that a massive pandemic and the worst race relations in decades just so happen to occur in 2020, Trump's re-election year? There's no way all of this is purely organic, it's clear there's an agenda.


Yea your right it's jut a liberal Rachel Maddow putting the country in this point, with her germ spreading and race rioting.
FUCK how could we miss that, because it clearly can't be the fault of the guy in charge, or the reaction of his policies or lack of.
your insight is staggering.

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Aug 6 2020 10:40am
https://mobile.twitter.com/tomselliott/status/1291371568225017856

.
@JoeBiden
: “Unlike the African-American community, with notable exceptions, the Latino community is an incredibly diverse community"

uh wat
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Aug 6 2020 07:14pm
https://www.foxnews.com/politics/biden-latino-diversity-african-american-community
ummm

Joe biden doubled down and repeated his line:

Quote
"Now what I mean full diversity, unlike the African American community and many other communities, you're from everywhere," Biden explained. "You're from Europe, from the tip of South America, all the way to our border in Mexico, and the Caribbean. And different backgrounds, different ethnicities, but all Latinos. We're gonna get a chance to do that if we win in November."


Now, taking a step back from the craziness of Biden doubling down on his statement already being panned by the PC crowd as racist-
what if this is part of a deliberate strategy?

I've been mullling whether Trump's reelection might hinge on his ability to put blacks against latinos in a culture war, what with BLM running rampant after George Floyd. Its a win-win culture war for Trump's election odds- black identity animus will only depress turnout given the anti-establishment attitudes, yet casting black vs brown with black aligned with the democrats leads more hispanics to defect to Trump, who has been going out of his way to court them and pander to them. And the hispanic vote is disproportionately focused in swing states or vulnerable red states, whereas black turnout is more an issue of depressing overall votes across the board.

What if Biden is reacting to this strategy and trying to counter by embracing the race war angle and trying to align himself with hispanics, even if it draws black ire?

I mean, why choose this hill to die on? I can accept Biden being gaffe prone and making a mistake. He goes and licks his wounds and his campaign strategies come up with a damage control plan, and he avoids saying anything risky about that subject again. Normal political stuff. But instead Joe Biden very deliberately came back and doubled down on a line of rhetoric which is basically "I love latinos, unlike blacks, LOL!"
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Aug 6 2020 08:01pm
Quote (Goomshill @ 6 Aug 2020 21:14)
https://www.foxnews.com/politics/biden-latino-diversity-african-american-community
ummm

Joe biden doubled down and repeated his line:



Now, taking a step back from the craziness of Biden doubling down on his statement already being panned by the PC crowd as racist-
what if this is part of a deliberate strategy?

I've been mullling whether Trump's reelection might hinge on his ability to put blacks against latinos in a culture war, what with BLM running rampant after George Floyd. Its a win-win culture war for Trump's election odds- black identity animus will only depress turnout given the anti-establishment attitudes, yet casting black vs brown with black aligned with the democrats leads more hispanics to defect to Trump, who has been going out of his way to court them and pander to them. And the hispanic vote is disproportionately focused in swing states or vulnerable red states, whereas black turnout is more an issue of depressing overall votes across the board.

What if Biden is reacting to this strategy and trying to counter by embracing the race war angle and trying to align himself with hispanics, even if it draws black ire?

I mean, why choose this hill to die on? I can accept Biden being gaffe prone and making a mistake. He goes and licks his wounds and his campaign strategies come up with a damage control plan, and he avoids saying anything risky about that subject again. Normal political stuff. But instead Joe Biden very deliberately came back and doubled down on a line of rhetoric which is basically "I love latinos, unlike blacks, LOL!"

one or two of these things:

(D)s think they have the black American vote for Joe locked up (pun intended) so it doesn’t matter if he goes and says racist things, the goal is to court more latino voters

(D)s don’t care and think it’s a net net gain to tick off some black voters to gain more latino voterz

or it’s just “Joe being Joe”
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Aug 6 2020 10:47pm
Quote (excellence @ Aug 6 2020 09:40am)
https://mobile.twitter.com/tomselliott/status/1291371568225017856

.
@JoeBiden
: “Unlike the African-American community, with notable exceptions, the Latino community is an incredibly diverse community"

uh wat



Here let me take the R response You should understand what he was implying
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Aug 6 2020 11:41pm
Why do people point to 2016 polls as if they were not taken before hillary was indicted and the dnc leaks came out turning bernie bros into never hillary voters?
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Aug 6 2020 11:54pm
Quote (Plaguefear @ Aug 7 2020 12:41am)
Why do people point to 2016 polls as if they were not taken before hillary was indicted and the dnc leaks came out turning bernie bros into never hillary voters?


Or the fact that the polls seriously shifted over several months to the point where Trump was within margin of error on election night?

The answer is that conservatives are just generally poor critical thinkers. They don't take it upon themselves to ask "what if I'm wrong" until somebody forces them to.
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Aug 7 2020 03:25am
Quote (Black XistenZ @ 6 Aug 2020 17:30)
Biden currently sits at the level Clinton reached at her absolute polling peak for a short period of time - but he has been polling at this level or even higher for the entire race.

Furthermore, there are far less undecideds this time around than back in 2016. Late-deciding voters in 2016 broke for Trump at roughly a 3:1 margin and allowed him to close the gap at he last moment. This year, there are far fewer of them, so that's one less route for Trump to close the gap.


https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/biden-is-polling-better-than-clinton-at-her-peak/
https://fivethirtyeight.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/08/skelley-CLINTON-BIDEN-STATES.0805-0804-1.png


These numbers mean nothing. :Y
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Aug 7 2020 07:36am
Quote (Plaguefear @ 7 Aug 2020 07:41)
Why do people point to 2016 polls as if they were not taken before hillary was indicted and the dnc leaks came out turning bernie bros into never hillary voters?


These specific polls they were pointing to were also taken before the Access Hollywood tape broke, which almost killed Trump's campaign.



Quote (Goomshill @ 7 Aug 2020 03:14)
https://www.foxnews.com/politics/biden-latino-diversity-african-american-community
ummm

Joe biden doubled down and repeated his line:



Now, taking a step back from the craziness of Biden doubling down on his statement already being panned by the PC crowd as racist-
what if this is part of a deliberate strategy?

I've been mullling whether Trump's reelection might hinge on his ability to put blacks against latinos in a culture war, what with BLM running rampant after George Floyd. Its a win-win culture war for Trump's election odds- black identity animus will only depress turnout given the anti-establishment attitudes, yet casting black vs brown with black aligned with the democrats leads more hispanics to defect to Trump, who has been going out of his way to court them and pander to them. And the hispanic vote is disproportionately focused in swing states or vulnerable red states, whereas black turnout is more an issue of depressing overall votes across the board.

What if Biden is reacting to this strategy and trying to counter by embracing the race war angle and trying to align himself with hispanics, even if it draws black ire?

I mean, why choose this hill to die on? I can accept Biden being gaffe prone and making a mistake. He goes and licks his wounds and his campaign strategies come up with a damage control plan, and he avoids saying anything risky about that subject again. Normal political stuff. But instead Joe Biden very deliberately came back and doubled down on a line of rhetoric which is basically "I love latinos, unlike blacks, LOL!"


I think you're looking too hard to find a super deep, complex plan behind plain incompetence.

First, I dont feel as if Trump is going out of his way to pander to latinos - he's talking less about immigration than during his 2016 campaign because he has the white voters who react positively to this message firmly locked up anyway, while stressing this topic would risk alienating college-educated whites/the suburbs even more (as evidenced by how the 2018 campaign went).


Second, Biden does need high black turnout in Pennsylvania, Florida and North Carolina, and might also rely on it in Michigan if the race tightens some more. Look at the map: if Biden lets FL, PA and NC slip, the following is his ONLY realistic path to a majority in the electoral college: https://www.270towin.com/maps/P7k48

If Biden's support with blacks slips, he's in a super precarious position in the electoral college where all of WI, MI, MN (not a given imho if the national race tightens) and Arizona and Nebraska's 2nd district are must wins. The latter two still leaning significantly to the right of the national as a whole. Furthermore, to win back the Senate, Democrats need to knock off Tillis in North Carolina, which is another race where they rely on blacks a lot.

Simply put, your premise is flawed. Biden does in fact depend on black voters in a range of crucial swing states. Things might shift over the coming decade, but for now, it is latinos who are inefficiently distributed in the EC, not blacks.

This post was edited by Black XistenZ on Aug 7 2020 07:51am
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Aug 7 2020 08:17am
Quote (Black XistenZ @ 7 Aug 2020 09:36)
These specific polls they were pointing to were also taken before the Access Hollywood tape broke, which almost killed Trump's campaign.





I think you're looking too hard to find a super deep, complex plan behind plain incompetence.

First, I dont feel as if Trump is going out of his way to pander to latinos - he's talking less about immigration than during his 2016 campaign because he has the white voters who react positively to this message firmly locked up anyway, while stressing this topic would risk alienating college-educated whites/the suburbs even more (as evidenced by how the 2018 campaign went).


Second, Biden does need high black turnout in Pennsylvania, Florida and North Carolina, and might also rely on it in Michigan if the race tightens some more. Look at the map: if Biden lets FL, PA and NC slip, the following is his ONLY realistic path to a majority in the electoral college: https://www.270towin.com/maps/P7k48

If Biden's support with blacks slips, he's in a super precarious position in the electoral college where all of WI, MI, MN (not a given imho if the national race tightens) and Arizona and Nebraska's 2nd district are must wins. The latter two still leaning significantly to the right of the national as a whole. Furthermore, to win back the Senate, Democrats need to knock off Tillis in North Carolina, which is another race where they rely on blacks a lot.

Simply put, your premise is flawed. Biden does in fact depend on black voters in a range of crucial swing states. Things might shift over the coming decade, but for now, it is latinos who are inefficiently distributed in the EC, not blacks.


yeah which is what i said above. either the (D) handlers behind the scenes think the black vote is locked up no matter what or they think the net-gain of adding latino voters at the cost of losing some black voters is beneficial.
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