Quote (Plaguefear @ 7 Aug 2020 07:41)
Why do people point to 2016 polls as if they were not taken before hillary was indicted and the dnc leaks came out turning bernie bros into never hillary voters?
These specific polls they were pointing to were also taken before the Access Hollywood tape broke, which almost killed Trump's campaign.
Quote (Goomshill @ 7 Aug 2020 03:14)
https://www.foxnews.com/politics/biden-latino-diversity-african-american-communityummm
Joe biden
doubled down and
repeated his line:
Now, taking a step back from the craziness of Biden doubling down on his statement already being panned by the PC crowd as racist-
what if this is part of a deliberate strategy?
I've been mullling whether Trump's reelection might hinge on his ability to put blacks against latinos in a culture war, what with BLM running rampant after George Floyd. Its a win-win culture war for Trump's election odds- black identity animus will only depress turnout given the anti-establishment attitudes, yet casting black vs brown with black aligned with the democrats leads more hispanics to defect to Trump, who has been going out of his way to court them and pander to them.
And the hispanic vote is disproportionately focused in swing states or vulnerable red states, whereas black turnout is more an issue of depressing overall votes across the board.What if Biden is reacting to this strategy and trying to counter by
embracing the race war angle and trying to align himself with hispanics, even if it draws black ire?
I mean, why choose this hill to die on? I can accept Biden being gaffe prone and making a mistake. He goes and licks his wounds and his campaign strategies come up with a damage control plan, and he avoids saying anything risky about that subject again. Normal political stuff. But instead Joe Biden very deliberately came back and doubled down on a line of rhetoric which is basically "I love latinos, unlike blacks, LOL!"
I think you're looking too hard to find a super deep, complex plan behind plain incompetence.
First, I dont feel as if Trump is going out of his way to pander to latinos - he's talking less about immigration than during his 2016 campaign because he has the white voters who react positively to this message firmly locked up anyway, while stressing this topic would risk alienating college-educated whites/the suburbs even more (as evidenced by how the 2018 campaign went).
Second, Biden does need high black turnout in Pennsylvania, Florida and North Carolina, and might also rely on it in Michigan if the race tightens some more. Look at the map: if Biden lets FL, PA and NC slip, the following is his ONLY realistic path to a majority in the electoral college:
https://www.270towin.com/maps/P7k48If Biden's support with blacks slips, he's in a super precarious position in the electoral college where all of WI, MI, MN (not a given imho if the national race tightens) and Arizona and Nebraska's 2nd district are must wins. The latter two still leaning significantly to the right of the national as a whole. Furthermore, to win back the Senate, Democrats need to knock off Tillis in North Carolina, which is another race where they rely on blacks a lot.
Simply put, your premise is flawed. Biden does in fact depend on black voters in a range of crucial swing states. Things might shift over the coming decade, but for now, it is latinos who are inefficiently distributed in the EC, not blacks.
This post was edited by Black XistenZ on Aug 7 2020 07:51am