Biden Leads among...

wait for it...

just wait...

leads among UNDECIDED VOTERS



https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-election-poll/biden-leading-trump-by-eight-points-also-has-a-big-advantage-with-undecided-voters-reuters-ipsos-poll-idUSKCN24N1AY

did you...

wait for it...

just wait...

did you seriously read the term "undecided voters" for the first time now?

rofl lmao lol
amazing!

Ill spell it out for you

Voters with low interest ie: unlikely voters and voters that change their mind to elect the Holy God Emperor

I don't see how the polls are accurate at all, but unfortunately the betting odds are nowhere near as good as in 2016 so I can't make an easy $10k with very little risk like before.

The biggest indicator I see is that on any platform which doesn't have heavy moderation or censorship, people are anti-liberal agenda and pro-Trump. Take the comments and like:dislike ratio on this video for instance:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ESGXmWh0z7c

Furthermore, many people I talk to in real life are also pro-Trump, but stay silent about their opinions most of the time because it's just not worth the hassle of the liberal mob pitchforking you.

I dont see why the polls should be far off right now. Trump was never popular, he wasnt able to notch up a really big "trademark achievement" in his first term, 'his' strong economy got destroyed by an external shock, there is skyhigh unemployment right now, a huge public health crisis that he completely bungled, and large-scale riots on the streets of many American cities.

Also note that the polls were very accurate in 2018, and not thaaat inaccurate in 2016 either. In 2016, it wasnt the polls that failed, it was the interpretation of the polls by data-illiterate journalists who, out of cognitive bias, didnt want to acknowledge Trump's greater than zero chance at victory.

The mood on various platforms is a very biased indicator btw. Those who are aligned with the liberal agenda will not be bothered (or not even notice) by the heavy moderation and censorship on places like twitter or reddit and stay on those platforms. Hence, those who leave for other platforms will be a self-selected sample with a strong anti-liberal and pro-Trump bias.




That said, the polls have been tightening somewhat over the past 2 or so weeks, and all the decisive swing states are still to the right of the nation as a whole, meaning that Trump still has an edge in the electoral college. If he manages to "only" lose the popular vote by 2 percentage points like in 2016, his probability for an EC victory should be in the 50-70% range. At the moment, I think that he has too much ground to make up for and will run out of time, particularly considering early voting. And there is still huge downside risk for him if the pandemic or the economy worsen even more, or if there's another police violence incident. Atm, I would put his chance at reelection at something like 15%.

This post was edited by Black XistenZ on Aug 6 2020 08:46am

You make some good points, but I do think the polls are off by a decent margin either way. Not as much as in 2016, but definitely very heavily biased towards Biden. The journalists you mention haven't changed at all, nor have they learned from their complacency.

Trump was honestly in deep trouble if the Democrats got their shit together and had a credible candidate. Instead the blatant race baiting and outright lies used to fuel the riots have made average Americans hate liberals and the MSM.

Very few people are arguing that Trump is the best president of all time, but he is a symbol and a massive FUCK YOU to the haughty upper class liberals and fraudulent media. Also, how much of a coincidence is it that a massive pandemic and the worst race relations in decades just so happen to occur in 2020, Trump's re-election year? There's no way all of this is purely organic, it's clear there's an agenda.

This post was edited by EA7 on Aug 6 2020 08:42am

Again: the polls were not far off in 2016. They were off by about 2 percent or so, expected Hillary to win the national popular vote by about 4, she won by 2.1 instead. They missed the tectonic shifts under the surface, and how these shifts (wwc trending heavily toward Trump, Sun Belt suburbs rapidly trending away from him) would give him a very big advantage in the EC. But all elections since 2016 have confirmed that these trends are the new normal, at least as long as Trump is president. They are baked in and accounted for by now. For example, most quality polls now do weight by education.

Biden didnt change these dynamics either btw. Like I pointed out before: unlike what his primary campaign was claiming, he does not have unique appeal with Obama-Trump voters. His victory in the primary as well as his current polling lead over Trump are both fueled by the suburbs.



I really dont think that the timing of the covid-19 pandemic is part of some huge conspiracy. Too many countries and too many people all over the world are getting fucked by it, both healthwise and financially. The protests in the wake of Floyd's death were of course spurred by the mainstream media, but it seems to have backfired enough to erase the gains they initially made because of it. In terms of polls and the state of the race, we're basically back to where we were 2.5 months ago before his death. Strategically, this is of course still a big win for Democrats since it took 2-3 months off the clock that they want to run out.

This post was edited by Black XistenZ on Aug 6 2020 08:57am

Biden is currently pulling in Clinton-level support. Trump has lost some support that he had in 2016. The race will come down to whether or not the old Trump supporters "come home to roost" before the election.

The race is tightening, and Biden is falling well under 50% in swing state averages, so we'll see how it goes.

your attempt to muddy the waters by posting incoherent random shit has been duly noted, it won't distract from your previous failure though.

Biden currently sits at the level Clinton reached at her absolute polling peak for a short period of time - but he has been polling at this level or even higher for the entire race.

Furthermore, there are far less undecideds this time around than back in 2016. Late-deciding voters in 2016 broke for Trump at roughly a 3:1 margin and allowed him to close the gap at he last moment. This year, there are far fewer of them, so that's one less route for Trump to close the gap.


https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/biden-is-polling-better-than-clinton-at-her-peak/