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Aug 2 2020 12:09pm
Quote (EndlessSky @ Aug 2 2020 01:05pm)
The economy was slow during a post-recession boom under Obama and the result will be the same under Biden. People like you with no attention span won't care, but the families in the rust belt that had to deal with the economic fallout of ~2010 Obama won't forget.

Your opinions on covid are all feelings and no facts.


Not a statistical argument
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Aug 2 2020 12:27pm
Quote (Thor123422 @ 2 Aug 2020 19:26)
GDP is down 33%

Under these circumstances there's no way for an incumbent to win regardless of who they are.


GDP is down 33% under the American way of calculating this statistic, which basically extrapolates the past quarter onto the entire year. More realistic estimates by economists are that over the entire year, the GDP will have fallen by 8-10% when all is said and done.

For the aforementioned difference in reporting GDP growth, see this good summary from the times:
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/07/29/business/economy/us-gdp-report.html

This post was edited by Black XistenZ on Aug 2 2020 12:28pm
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Aug 2 2020 12:32pm
Quote (Black XistenZ @ Aug 2 2020 02:27pm)
GDP is down 33% under the American way of calculating this statistic, which basically extrapolates the past quarter onto the entire year. More realistic estimates by economists are that over the entire year, the GDP will have fallen by 8-10% when all is said and done.

For the aforementioned difference in reporting GDP growth, see this good summary from the times:
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/07/29/business/economy/us-gdp-report.html


This is what Obama would do to lie every year. Remember when he created 10,000 "federal government jobs" and claimed that he grew the economy?
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Aug 2 2020 12:35pm
Quote (Black XistenZ @ Aug 2 2020 01:27pm)
GDP is down 33% under the American way of calculating this statistic, which basically extrapolates the past quarter onto the entire year. More realistic estimates by economists are that over the entire year, the GDP will have fallen by 8-10% when all is said and done.

For the aforementioned difference in reporting GDP growth, see this good summary from the times:
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/07/29/business/economy/us-gdp-report.html


Yeah I just looked into it more. I thought it was "annualized" in that it was compared to this quarter last year. Turns out it was "annualized" by extrapolating ahead 3 more quarters.

Still not great though. The biggest issue going forward is going to be mass homelessness. With the additional unemployment out it's gonna get worse.
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Aug 2 2020 12:38pm
Quote (EndlessSky @ 2 Aug 2020 20:32)
This is what Obama would do to lie every year. Remember when he created 10,000 "federal government jobs" and claimed that he grew the economy?


This has been the American way of reporting quarterly growth for decades. I dont really know what Obama has to do with that. :unsure:

Anyway, Thor of course has a point: Trump is a historically unpopular incumbent who has dropped the ball quite badly on the public health side of the pandemic, and the economy is looking dire (and still will be on election day), so it's really hard to come up with good reasons why he should win reelection. The deep mediocrity of his opponent and the hyperpartisan nature of American politics in 2020 are the only reason why he's still in this race at all.

This post was edited by Black XistenZ on Aug 2 2020 12:39pm
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Aug 2 2020 01:05pm
Quote (Black XistenZ @ Aug 2 2020 02:38pm)
This has been the American way of reporting quarterly growth for decades. I dont really know what Obama has to do with that. :unsure:


Obama would lie about economics statistics to make him look better every SOTU.

Of course its fucking about Obama unless you're blind.
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Aug 2 2020 01:08pm
Quote (EndlessSky @ Aug 2 2020 12:05pm)
Obama would lie about economics statistics to make him look better every SOTU.

Of course its fucking about Obama unless you're blind.


as a trump supporter lying is a thing you care about?
What are the statistics that Obama lied about.. a couple would help
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Aug 2 2020 01:16pm
Quote (EndlessSky @ Aug 2 2020 02:05pm)
Obama would lie about economics statistics to make him look better every SOTU.

Of course its fucking about Obama unless you're blind.


Give some specific examples to support, with your source for the "accurate" statistics.

Chop chop.
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Aug 2 2020 03:45pm
Quote (Thor123422 @ Aug 2 2020 03:16pm)
Give some specific examples to support, with your source for the "accurate" statistics.

Chop chop.


Quote (theCrossbones @ Aug 2 2020 03:08pm)
as a trump supporter lying is a thing you care about?
What are the statistics that Obama lied about.. a couple would help


Look 2 posts up. He created federal government jobs and claimed that the economy grew even though the private sector shrank.

This post was edited by EndlessSky on Aug 2 2020 03:45pm
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Aug 2 2020 04:07pm
Quote (EndlessSky @ Aug 2 2020 04:45pm)
Look 2 posts up. He created federal government jobs and claimed that the economy grew even though the private sector shrank.


The economy includes private and public sector jobs. And you didn't cite what you thought the true statistic is so your claim doesn't really matter

This post was edited by Thor123422 on Aug 2 2020 04:08pm
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