Quote (NetflixAdaptationWidow @ 30 Nov 2021 17:26)
Except that's not exactly how it works, because we don't see flu epidemics in the south every year in the summer. If the south had small outbreaks in summer due to those factors you would have a defensible position, but instead they had hospital-overwhelming surges.
The flu is much less contagious. You yourself constantly stress how a simple measure like mask-wearing was able to all but eliminate the flu during winter. And it probably has a slightly different seasonality. Different types of virus might be affected by humidity, sunshine duration or social mixing to different degrees.
So it's well possible for the R(t) of the flu to be, say, 0.8 during summer in the south, but 0.6 or so in the north; then it flips during winter to become, say, 1.1 in the south and 1.5 in the north.