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Jul 12 2020 06:04am
Quote (Black XistenZ @ 12 Jul 2020 13:38)
I was referring more to liberal opinion leaders, the journalists and pundits. They didnt churn out pieces about how the EC is a disaster for democracy and should be abolished asap from 2006 until fall of 2016, i.e. during the decade where they were generally "winning".


i'm sure you have stats and media studies to back that claim up? what? just your own personal feelings, and at best some anecdotal evidence? too bad, because actual FACTS show that it's the conservative side that has a significantly less principled stance on this issue - funny how the massive influence of 'liberal media' has so little impact, huh?


Quote (Black XistenZ @ 12 Jul 2020 13:38)
Funny how the facts are always supporting fender's position (according to fender) .... and anyone disagreeing with your opinion is ignorant, moronic, uninformed or a hack.


there is a reason you keep ignoring the FACT that the EC makes millions of votes virtually worthless, that it leads to a hyperfocus (politically and financially) on just a relatively small minority of relevant voters, while at the same time trying to push the wrong and irrelevant narrative that it's the 'left' who are less principled in their position to abandon the EC. if the facts were on your side, you'd address those arguments, rather than pushing a narrative that your own sources conclusively debunked.

it's the same reason you disappeared from conversations around trump's abysmal handling of covid-19, after your attempts to make a lazy whataboutism concerning mexico failed hard.
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Jul 12 2020 06:24am
Quote (fender @ 12 Jul 2020 14:04)
there is a reason you keep ignoring the FACT that the EC makes millions of votes virtually worthless


You mean like in Germany's oh-so-great proportional representation system, where over 6 million votes or roughly 15% of all votes cast in the 2013 general election were rendered worthless because of the 5% threshold? Remember how the right-of-center parties had a majority of votes cast, but how the left-of-center parties ended up with a parliamentory majority due to this?
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2013_German_federal_election

That's a very recent example from your own country making millions of votes worthless and having a split between the ideological leaning of the populace and the parliament. But then you cry about how the political system in a foreign country is oh-so horrible because not every vote has the same leverage and it sometimes produces a split between popular vote and resulting government?

And on top you have the audacity to call others out for being unprincipled on this issue when you are just as unprincipled and motivated by your partisan leanings...



Quote
if the facts were on your side, you'd address those arguments, rather than pushing a narrative that your own sources conclusively debunked.


Lol, my sources did not debunk my narrative, no matter how many times you repeat this bullshit.
Generally speaking, I address arguments when I feel like it. And since debating with you is always extremely tedious and usually goes nowhere, I'm less inclined to put effort into debates with you than into debates with others.

Quote
it's the same reason you disappeared from conversations around trump's abysmal handling of covid-19, after your attempts to make a lazy whataboutism concerning mexico failed hard.


It's not whataboutism. Covid really is burning throw all of Latin America right now. That numbers from Mexico are not as reliable or complete as those coming from the U.S. should be obvious, but apparently, me not pointing out the painfully obvious means that my argument "failed hard" based on your limited understanding of the issue.

Also note that I have criticized Trump's handling of Covid time and time again. I already criticized it back in April and even back then called it the biggest failure of his presidency. I criticize him where I think it's justified, and I defend his actions where I find criticism to be unfair or overblown. Once again: me walking away from a discussion after I said what I had to say about the issue at hand does not mean that your arguments were better or that you "won" the discussion. It means that I have better things to do with my life than engaging in endless back and forth which will predictably lead nowhere.

This post was edited by Black XistenZ on Jul 12 2020 06:25am
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Jul 12 2020 09:13am
Quote (Black XistenZ @ 12 Jul 2020 14:24)
You mean like in Germany's oh-so-great proportional representation system, where over 6 million votes or roughly 15% of all votes cast in the 2013 general election were rendered worthless because of the 5% threshold? Remember how the right-of-center parties had a majority of votes cast, but how the left-of-center parties ended up with a parliamentory majority due to this?
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2013_German_federal_election

That's a very recent example from your own country making millions of votes worthless and having a split between the ideological leaning of the populace and the parliament. But then you cry about how the political system in a foreign country is oh-so horrible because not every vote has the same leverage and it sometimes produces a split between popular vote and resulting government?

And on top you have the audacity to call others out for being unprincipled on this issue when you are just as unprincipled and motivated by your partisan leanings...





Lol, my sources did not debunk my narrative, no matter how many times you repeat this bullshit.
Generally speaking, I address arguments when I feel like it. And since debating with you is always extremely tedious and usually goes nowhere, I'm less inclined to put effort into debates with you than into debates with others.



It's not whataboutism. Covid really is burning throw all of Latin America right now. That numbers from Mexico are not as reliable or complete as those coming from the U.S. should be obvious, but apparently, me not pointing out the painfully obvious means that my argument "failed hard" based on your limited understanding of the issue.

Also note that I have criticized Trump's handling of Covid time and time again. I already criticized it back in April and even back then called it the biggest failure of his presidency. I criticize him where I think it's justified, and I defend his actions where I find criticism to be unfair or overblown. Once again: me walking away from a discussion after I said what I had to say about the issue at hand does not mean that your arguments were better or that you "won" the discussion. It means that I have better things to do with my life than engaging in endless back and forth which will predictably lead nowhere.


and while trying to prove that you have arguments, you reply with a ridiculous whataboutism that's so moronic that i can only assume you made it to appeal to certain parts of an american audience, (probably correctly) assuming they don't have the slightest clue about german politics and what you misrepresent as a 'right of center majority', a lie so aggressively stupid and misleading that i genuinely have to question your sanity. holy shit.
also noticed how again you didn't address the fact that the EC leads to a hyperfocus on some specific issues that only affect a small minority of the electorate - you couldn't even find a shitty lie to defend that, huh?

and yes, your sources directly debunked your 'the left is unprincipled on the ec' narrative by showing that throughout the last two decades there was a clear majority against it, and public opinion has 'only' shifted by 12%, while the right's opinion, depending on whether it directly overturned the popular vote or not, shifted by almost two and a half times as much, a whopping 27%.

also, when your reply to a post, that is clearly comparing canadian and us numbers, is 'b-b-but what about mexico?', that is clearly an attempted deflection from that conversation - and it's particular stupid considering mexico, despite not exactly doing a stellar job (which i already acknowledged as you will surely remember), is STILL doing better than its rich northern neighbour, that unlike them had all the infrastructure and opportunities to have a competent and effective response to the pandemic, but failed miserably. jumping to the defense of trump comes so natural to you that you don't even seem to notice your own hackery anymore, lol...

This post was edited by fender on Jul 12 2020 09:14am
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Jul 12 2020 03:07pm
Another two weeks have gone by so here is the state of the race:

Biden is up 9.6% nationally (increase of 0.3 since the 27th). We are now at Reagan vs. Carter in terms of COMPLETE blowout and are headed towards 1940 FDR. Biden's lead is fucking HUGE and more importantly CONSISTENT. Hillary never came CLOSE to these margins. Let's take a look at the swing states.

AZ: Biden +2.4, was +4.7
FL: Biden +6.2, was 7.2
GA: Biden +1.1, was 1.4
IA: Trump + 0.3, was Biden +.03
MI: Biden +9.7, was 10.7
NV: Biden +8.7, no change
NH: Biden +8.3, was 8.5
NC: Biden +3.4, was 2.9
OH: Biden +2.6, was 2.7
PA: Biden +7.6, was 8.1
TX: Biden +0.1, was Trump +0.3
WI: Biden +8.1, was 9.6

If you look at the individual polls, it seems that there's quite a bit of fluctuation in state polling (up to 10 points) which is why an average of polls is so important. In addition, there really wasn't much polling over the past couple weeks (about 1-3 per state). Polling hasn't been particularly high quality either. The small shifts we are seeing correspond to the correlation in the national polling. Regardless, Trump needs a shift of about 5 points in order to be remotely competitive.

This post was edited by thundercock on Jul 12 2020 03:20pm
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Jul 12 2020 03:20pm
Quote (thundercock @ Jul 12 2020 02:07pm)
Another two weeks have gone by so here is the state of the race:

Biden is up 9.6% nationally (increase of 0.3 since the 27th). We are now at Reagan vs. Carter in terms of COMPLETE blowout and are headed towards 1940 FDR. Biden's lead is fucking HUGE and more importantly CONSISTENT. Hillary never came CLOSE to these margins. Let's take a look at the swing states.

AZ: Biden +2.4, was +4.7
FL: Biden +6.2, was 7.2
GA: Biden +1.1, was 1.4
IA: Trump + 0.3, was Biden +.03
MI: Biden +9.7, was 10.7
NV: Biden +8.7, no change
NH: Biden +8.3, was 8.5
NC: Biden +3.4, was 2.9
OH: Biden +2.6, was 2.7
PA: Biden +7.6, was 8.1
TX: Biden +0.1, was Trump +0.3
WI: Biden +8.1, was Trump 9.6

If you look at the individual polls, it seems that there's quite a bit of fluctuation in state polling (up to 10 points) which is why an average of polls is so important. In addition, there really wasn't much polling over the past couple weeks (about 1-3 per state). Polling hasn't been particularly high quality either. The small shifts we are seeing correspond to the correlation in the national polling. Regardless, Trump needs a shift of about 5 points in order to be remotely competitive.




WI: Biden +8.1, was Trump 9.6

has to be bad data
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Jul 12 2020 03:21pm
Quote (theCrossbones @ Jul 12 2020 02:20pm)
WI: Biden +8.1, was Trump 9.6

has to be bad data


I made a typo. Biden has been killing it in WI for a while.
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Jul 12 2020 03:29pm
Quote (thundercock @ 12 Jul 2020 23:07)
Another two weeks have gone by so here is the state of the race:

Biden is up 9.6% nationally (increase of 0.3 since the 27th). We are now at Reagan vs. Carter in terms of COMPLETE blowout and are headed towards 1940 FDR. Biden's lead is fucking HUGE and more importantly CONSISTENT. Hillary never came CLOSE to these margins. Let's take a look at the swing states.

AZ: Biden +2.4, was +4.7
FL: Biden +6.2, was 7.2
GA: Biden +1.1, was 1.4
IA: Trump + 0.3, was Biden +.03
MI: Biden +9.7, was 10.7
NV: Biden +8.7, no change
NH: Biden +8.3, was 8.5
NC: Biden +3.4, was 2.9
OH: Biden +2.6, was 2.7
PA: Biden +7.6, was 8.1
TX: Biden +0.1, was Trump +0.3
WI: Biden +8.1, was 9.6

If you look at the individual polls, it seems that there's quite a bit of fluctuation in state polling (up to 10 points) which is why an average of polls is so important. In addition, there really wasn't much polling over the past couple weeks (about 1-3 per state). Polling hasn't been particularly high quality either. The small shifts we are seeing correspond to the correlation in the national polling. Regardless, Trump needs a shift of about 5 points in order to be remotely competitive.


The daily corona cases escalating again over these past 2 weeks has really killed any chance Trump might have had at starting a comeback in the polls. As long as the country isnt getting this thing under control, with Trump not being helpful or even actively harming the efforts, nothing else will matter enough to turn his fortunes around. And even if he did start doing the right thing, it might be too late to show visible effects in time. He's quickly running out of time.
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Jul 12 2020 03:37pm
Quote (Black XistenZ @ 12 Jul 2020 23:29)
The daily corona cases escalating again over these past 2 weeks has really killed any chance Trump might have had at starting a comeback in the polls. As long as the country isnt getting this thing under control, with Trump not being helpful or even actively harming the efforts, nothing else will matter enough to turn his fortunes around. And even if he did start doing the right thing, it might be too late to show visible effects in time. He's quickly running out of time.


and the funny thing is, this is 100% on him. there never was a need to make this a partisan issue. with a halfway competent response he would have been safe against biden, even the enourmous impact it had on the economy and employment (highlighting the vulnerabilities of the corrupt american system) would probably not have hurt him too much considering it's a global phenomenon that had a devastating impact on most economies.

i like it. #winning

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Jul 13 2020 06:02pm






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Jul 13 2020 06:32pm
Quote (Ghot @ 14 Jul 2020 02:02)


Meh. As long as Trump keeps self-destructing, nobody cares about those Biden nothingburgers.

Btw, are you even aware that Reagan was the first politician to popularize the "Make America Great Again" slogan, not Trump?
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