Quote (Black XistenZ @ Aug 3 2021 06:24pm)
That's very interesting, thanks for linking.
A population which is falling and aging too quickly will obviously cause problems, particularly with maintaining pensions and the welfare state. In the long run, however, I believe that a lower world population is better for everyone and not very problematic. Advances in automation and AI will mean that we will need a lot less people to produce the same amount of goods and certain services. It also defuses the climate change problem quite a bit. If mankind has to operate in carbon-neutral fashion past a certain date, then having a world population of 8bn instead of 11bn means the per capita carbon budget will be 37% higher.
In the very long run, I'm thinking 2200 and beyond, mankind should settle at around 1 to 2 billion people, with stable birth rates at the replacement level.
Have you heard of Malthusianism? In the 1800s, Thomas Malthus predicted that the exponentially increasing population at the time was unsustainable when considering the growth of resources required to sustain it
What he didn't consider was that technological innovation results in a growth of resources (and a more efficient use of scarce resources) far greater than a linear pattern. He was proven to be wrong and his theories were discredited in the years since
Assuming we have the resources to sustain it, a higher population increases the survival chances of the human race rather than hinders it. Climate change can be solved with innovation, the only problem is we're about 30 years too late and have caused irreversible damage (or can we innovate out of that, too?)
I don't think there's any logical basis for having a population as low as 1 or 2 bn