My money would be on "1-2 days after election day". This way, the GOP can still use the looming nomination fight to drive turnout among social conservatives and give Trump-weary voters a reason to vote for him, or at least for Republicans in downballot races like the Senate ones. By then going through with the vote before the loads of mail ballots can feasibly be counted, they avoid the potential of producing really bad optics. The GOP ramming a nominee through after it has already been confirmed that the American public voted to take away control of the Senate from them would be soooo ugly. And it would also provide Democrats the perfect occasion to argue in favor of abolishing the filibuster and packing the courts (and potentially the Senate itself via DC and Puerto Rico statehood).

Another factor that plays a large role in this: Arizona has some quirky law that the outgoing senator is kicked as soon as the results from the senatorial race have been officially signed. So if McSally loses, which seems very likely at this point, she'll have at most one more week after election day until she's gone and the GOP falls down to 52 seats.

This post was edited by Black XistenZ on Sep 23 2020 07:34pm

It has to be before Barr files his lawsuit to stop votes from being counted.

This post was edited by inkanddagger on Sep 23 2020 07:47pm

That would be optimal timing. I think PR will become a state if they vote for statehood this November. There's no good reason not to do it given that they'd be larger than Iowa in terms of population. The Republican party does pretty well there so it wouldn't surprise me if you have a split set of Senators there.

I don't think Dems will pack the courts. It's not a popular proposal among Senators.

Is it though? Or is that just what they are saying now, during the campaign, being fully aware that court packing is not popular with the swing voters in the tipping point races for control of the Senate (NC, ME, AZ), let alone other competitive Senate races on light-red turf (GA, IA, MT).

Right now, the primary incentive for Democratic senators is to pander to the median voter. By contrast, after election day, the main source of pressure on them will be their own, rabid base. Particularly if they have a good cycle, with Biden not just defeating Trump but defeating him by a large margin, further House seats flipping to Democrats in the suburbs and them winning a 2+ seat majority in the Senate. In this scenario, they can argue that they're equipped by the American voter with a strong mandate to implement their agenda and clear out any obstacles in the way.

I mean, if they want to lose in 2022, sure? There's just no need to pack the Supreme Court. The Dems don't need it when they can just legislate and get a stamp of approval from the President.

Republicans thought the same when they had trifecta control from 2016 to 2018. A lot of policies still came down to the Supreme Court...

They would be better served to impeach and remove Kavanaugh.

Requires a two-thirds majority in the Senate, which Democrats cannot possibly achieve in the current configuration of American politics. Even if they grant statehood to DC and Puerto Rico and Guam and the Marianas and split California into 3 states yada yada, it would still not be enough to clear this bar.

The Republicans don't have the necessary skills to govern effectively. They only know how to be a minority party.

They truly need to blackmail as many Republicans as it takes.