Quote (Thor123422 @ May 27 2020 06:51pm)
When it already happens in several states and we don't see the kind of thing Trump is saying, then there's really no reason to go about analyzing those things. We already know what happens, the only thing left is to point out why he's talking out of his ass.
Read the underlying studies behind the fact checks. The methodology is always circular. No checks, no arrests, and therefore no checks required.
It is interesting that as an aside to why we don't need voter ID laws, the study snopes references notes that mail is the predominant form of voter fraud, making up by far more cases than any other method.
Snopes goes on to mention that some states do well with statewide mail-in ballots, so long as they buttress that with strong controls. But there's no guarantee that those controls will be universally rolled out, or that they can be successfully rolled out on a much larger scale so close to the election.
This will be an emotionally charged election that may be decided in a handful of states where small differences in turnout and vote totals will matter. Switching to a less secure method of voting on a completely novel scale is thus a reasonable concern.
Does Trump have evidence that voter fraud will happen? Undoubtedly not. But that's his (informed or uninformed) opinion, and it's not something a fact check can objectively determine.