Quote (Black XistenZ @ Aug 10 2024 02:18pm)
I disagree with the idea that the Houthis would back off just because Israel slows down. If an official ceasefire in Gaza is struck, then I can imagine it, but not if they just reduce the intensity of their campaign.
Also note that supply chains are highly globalized these days, a disruption to the EUR-East Asia corridor will also lead to goods inflation for American consumers. Maybe not as high as for the Euros, but still.
Regarding China, this calculus might hold true during normal economic times - but they're suffering from a veritable economic slump at the moment while sitting on a gigantic housing bubble. Not sure if this is the moment they want to suck up avoidable economic costs to make very indirect, peripheral gains in the geostrategic sphere.
The US-China trade lanes would mostly utilize the Pacific, no? Yes the US is also indirectly affected but again most of these carriers are going to Europe. Europe is disproportionally most affected here, most of the ships that have been hit have also been either UK or Greek vessels, which are insured but Euro insurers. It's not even close.