blockading the "blockade" shows the Trump admin either hasn't learned anything or its all for optics.

The strait isn't closed due to a blockade, it's closed because of the thread of missile fire. Iran won't buckle due to lack of food or water.

It's more about pressuring China to pressure Iran. Iran has continued its oil exports through all of this, mostly to China. By blockading those, we pressure that. I guess it's our way of saying if our friends can't get their oil out, neither will you.

It's still all part of the background negotiation shaping that will probably result in some deal in the next 2 weeks IMO.

This post was edited by ofthevoid on Apr 14 2026 11:33am

I think people are overvaluing how much china cares about this, tbh. As far as oil exports they can replace them fairly easily. Iran accounts for about 11% of their imported oil.

Fertilizer is more key, especially given the time of year we're in, but im not up to date on acreage spread of ferts that china uses compared to the USA. Here we fertilize like crazy, so the entire strait situation is going to hurt and quick. I'm in dairy land where manure is king, so wont hurt us much but in the plains this is gonna kill yields and costs.

my gut tells me which is willing to weather any storm because they know short term they can withstand it and Trump/USA can't. we're better positioned to withstand a full global recession, but we're far worse positioned ahead of midterms for turbulence.

Yeah i said the same a few times. Trump has a very short window to land this plane or he will single handedly wipe out republicans in November. Imagine if this dragged on for a year though? Republican nominee in 2028 would have no chance while you'd have parts of Africa and Asia probably rationing food and fuel to survive.

e. the way equity markets are responding the last few days though is telling. There is going to be some compromise because alternative is really bad for everyone and the market action is telling us that this is happening.

This post was edited by ofthevoid on Apr 14 2026 12:06pm

the markets have failed to predict several crashed in our lifetime, but i tend to think their lack of panic is correct here and that a compromise is in position.

tbh trump may just tuck tail, Netanyahu is already saying publicly that they dont need any more goals accomplished in Iran.

You’re downplaying the importance of Iranian oil for China. It’s sanctioned so China gets it significantly cheaper than we can get oil because they have all the cards in negotiations. If China doesn’t buy Iranian oil no one will. This insulates them from rising oil costs, but also from the threat of sanctions against them.

i think properly phrased this should say "importance of Chinese imports for Iran", because China comprises 90% of Iranian oil exports. Whereas Iran only comprises 11% of Chinese imports.

I think economically that's correct, but in a war of survival economics don't hold as much importance. Iranians are going to starve, their economy will be in shambles, and their export market which was already destitute is broken. Yet they're in this war with the highest stakes so I dont see it moving the needle much.

Will the naval blockage prevent Pakistan from bringing in food? of course not.

Well yes, obviously it’s more important for Iran, which is what gives China so much leverage over them. It’s also very important for China though, getting 11% of their oil at a steep discount that is immune to sanctions is huge. They have a vested interest in keeping Iran at odds with the west to maintain sanctions, just like they had a vested interest in keeping Venezuela unfriendly. Their interests in Venezuela have already been disrupted. If we can do the same in Iran it may be an even bigger step in assuring global stability than preventing Iran from acquiring nuclear weapons, although that’s obviously extremely important too.

Day 1 of the blockade.
Sanctioned tankers already going through.

Time for TACO Tuesday