Quote (Goomshill @ 19 Jun 2017 03:23)
Thats overly optimistic. The most savvy political analysts I saw said democrats weren't even considering the house flip to be a realistic prospect in 2018. They worried about Trump's low approval ratings dragging downstream republicans when cutting their losses in the 2016 election, and then he won and downstream republicans outperformed estimates (still losing 6 house seats, but retaining the national advantage handily). So Trump will have 2 years to watch Russiaburger flop and when people realize he's not going to sprout horns and a pointy tail and open fissures across the earth that spout fire and brimstone, Trump's got nowhere to go but up, and with that huge hurdle for retaking the house? Factor in the turnout on an off-year with jaded young democrats who berned out, factor in the seniors being the only demographic that reliably turns out for off-years, factor in the unprecedented number of split ticket voters who did Trump for president and democrats for other office- with 98% not regretting it, but being extremely alienated by a hostile left who call them nazis, and the odds that will flip them into full blown republican voters? The odds of a democrat house in 2018 is pretty small. I wouldn't say its impossible, I mean Trump did win somehow, but the most likely scenario by current estimates is the status quo being maintained, and that's a pretty safe bet. Its more likely that republicans take a supermajority in the senate than that democrats retake the house- the republicans are actually going to be fighting to take democrat seats in 8 battlegrounds that went to Trump by double digit margins, its just a clean sweep is unlikely.
I think you're being too optimistic for trump/the GOP.
yes, they have a huge advantage in terms of district lines and midterm voter demographics, and a huge advantage in the senate races, and I consider the whole comey russia investigation turning out to be a nothingburger to be the most realistic scenario. but I'd still put something like a 20-25% probability on the investigations turning something up that really hurts trump. the GOP pushing through a very unpopular healthcare bill that costs millions of people their insurance could turn them very sour and could bring up enthusiasm and turnout for democrats. there's no way in hell the GOP doesnt increase its seats in the senate, but I also dont think that they're gonna get a supermajority either.
overall, the midterms are still almost 18 months away, and there is plenty of room for scandals but also legislation until then. a lot will depend on whether trump gets consumed by more scandals and on whether he will be able to get big, meaningful bills through congress till the midterms.