Quote (Black XistenZ @ Jun 18 2017 07:01pm)
im not so sure on republicans holding the house. estimates are that the democrats need to outperform republicans nationally by around 8% to retake it (gerrymandering, hooray!), and that trump's approval ratings hovering around 40% would indicate a republican national loss by 10. so factor in the turnout rate which at midterms favors the GOP and you got a very tight race. at the moment, I'd guesstimate the odds of dems retaking the house in 2018 at roughly 50:50. if trump/the GOP somewhat get their shit together until the midterms, they should hold the house; if they fuck up some more, it will probably slip out of their control.
Thats overly optimistic. The most savvy political analysts I saw said democrats weren't even considering the house flip to be a realistic prospect in 2018. They worried about Trump's low approval ratings dragging downstream republicans when cutting their losses in the 2016 election, and then he won and downstream republicans outperformed estimates (still losing 6 house seats, but retaining the national advantage handily). So Trump will have 2 years to watch Russiaburger flop and when people realize he's not going to sprout horns and a pointy tail and open fissures across the earth that spout fire and brimstone, Trump's got nowhere to go but up, and with that huge hurdle for retaking the house? Factor in the turnout on an off-year with jaded young democrats who berned out, factor in the seniors being the only demographic that reliably turns out for off-years, factor in the unprecedented number of split ticket voters who did Trump for president and democrats for other office- with 98% not regretting it, but being extremely alienated by a hostile left who call them nazis, and the odds that will flip them into full blown republican voters? The odds of a democrat house in 2018 is pretty small. I wouldn't say its impossible, I mean Trump did win somehow, but the most likely scenario by current estimates is the status quo being maintained, and that's a pretty safe bet. Its more likely that republicans take a supermajority in the senate than that democrats retake the house- the republicans are actually going to be fighting to take democrat seats in 8 battlegrounds that went to Trump by double digit margins, its just a clean sweep is unlikely.