Quote (Black XistenZ @ Apr 18 2017 04:06pm)
we were appeasing erdogan and his country. we were trying to cooperate with them. european politicians bit their tongues and said almost nothing in reply edogans insufferable tirades, to make sure to not add more fuel to the fire.
Ask yourself a simple question: Can we make the situation better? The answer is not a result of a simple calculation, but the answer is not by casting of Turkey.
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the result? turkey is already about to be transitioned into an islamic state. turkey is not really supporting the war against isis anyway. they are already using refugees as pawns in their scheming against europe.
They were supporting the war against ISIS half passively and half proactively only in their self interests. Turkey has given support to ISIS through oil money and filtering in fighters, but its also rushing to seize territories to cut off the kurds. Turkey was largely ambivalent to the sectarian war, not being openly ISIS nor wanting to destroy them. But they're very interested in attacking the kurds and the balance of powers of the region as it impacts them. So they've given tepid direct support and mostly just let the US fly its missions out while advancing the syrian north where ISIS retreats without any real battle.
Their ability to use the flood of refugees as a bargaining chip with the EU is about to dry up as a result of the syrian war ending. Next will come negotiations over the return of refugees, and Turkey will once again have a bargaining chip.
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the way we have dealt with erdogan, his supporters and turkey as a whole IS already not helping our interests. when it comes to turkey, we are on a path that is clearly not working. continuing on this path means that all the things you described become reality.
And do you present a solution, or just lament the inevitable? Its easy to point out the looming problem, its harder to actually improve it.
We can't make the situation better by such kneejerk reactions, but we can certainly make it worse
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imho the way to get rid of erdogan or to tame him is massive economic pressure. turkey cant replace europe as a trade partner. economically, they need europe muuuuch more than europe needs them. with a worsening economy, erdogans support will vanish rather quickly. he might even lose the 2019 election if enough turks realize how badly following erdogan and his islamistic path impacts their lives.
Sanctions didn't depose anyone in Iran or Iraq or Russia. They won't topple erdogan, and they will just completely shut off the west from turkey and forever sever the secular arab democracy from its western allies. Attempting to harden support from religious sunni arabs has never worked and never will for obvious reasons. Force erdogan into a corner and there won't be any 2019 election- its not like there is even a real potential of that now anyway when he's seized dictator powers.