Quote (Brian_D @ 6 Nov 2019 18:02)
Bad night for Trump in Kenturkey.
Losing the high-profile governors race surely hurts and is bad PR for Trump/the GOP, but it should be noted that Republicans swept all other statewide offices in Kentucky, most of them by big margins:
https://mobile.twitter.com/geoffreyvs/status/1191926893865508866?s=20They even picked up the state AG from the Dems. Together with picking up the AG in MS (first Republican AG in MS since 1878), Republicans now hold a majority of AGs in the nation.
So why did the governors race in KY go so differently from all the other statewide races in KY that night?
Well, incumbent governor Matt Bevin (R) was an incompetent tool who had picked up unnecessary fights not just with unions but also with his own people, feuded with Republicans in the state assembly and so on.
Bevin had antagonized just about everyone, and consequently, he was the least popular governor in the entire country.
(Net approval rating of -24%, see
https://eu.courier-journal.com/story/news/politics/2019/07/18/kentucky-governor-matt-bevin-least-popular-again-morning-consult-poll/1764726001/ )
On top of that, Bevin had only come into office in 2015 because the very popular Democratic incumbent Steve Beshear was term-limited and couldnt run again. And guess who his opponent this time was? Andy Beshear, the son of his popular, term-limited predecessor.
So Bevin was the most unpopular governor in the entire country and running against the strongest possible candidate the Democrats could field.
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Republican results in Virginia basically matched Trump's 2016 performance, they even overperformed in the VA state senate races. That they still lost both chambers has several reasons:
- Virginia has become a blueish state, it has voted for the Democratic candidate in the last 3 presidential election, it had a Democratic governor for 16 of the last 20 years, and so on.
- since the demographic and economic trends in Virgnia are running against the GOP, their slim majorities in the VA General Assembly were on borrowed time.
- that they still clinged to these slim majorities was only due to heavily gerrymandered district maps, which were struck down by courts before yesterday's election. running on a more unfavorable map explains why Virginia Republicans (narrowly) lost control of both chambers despite perfectly fine vote tallies. in the end, Republican losses were even less severe than some had predicted.
- a bonus point: the narrow Democratic majority in the VA state senate (21:19) now hinges on a convicted kiddie fiddler who has a habit of fucking and impregnating his underaged interns, and who was pressured heavily by his own caucus to go away in recent years. ( https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Joe_Morrissey )
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some further results from last nights elections:
- Republicans got destroyed in suburban Philadelphia
- Republicans picked up 4+ seats in the New Jersey state legislature
- mixed results in suburban New York and on Long Island
- the Democratic candidate in a by-election in a suburban Texas state district only received 38% of the vote, will stand no chance in the runoff. this race had been hyped up by some media as a potential bellweather for the prospects of a "blue Texas 2020", the national party had even poured resources into this race. ( https://www.texastribune.org/2019/11/05/texas-house-special-election-results-2019-what-you-need-know/ )
- Republicans hold all offices in Mississippi, and pick some up, like AG. the governors race at the top of the ballot was unusually close, but I've read that he Democratic candidate was the strongest possible one the Dems could field.
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tldr: the night was a mixed bag, with no side being thoroughly triumphant. Demcorats have more to celebrate because they narrowly won the race which got most national attention (KY governor), but their other results in KY were disappointing. In Virginia, the inevitable happened, which gives good headlines to the Democrats, but is actually not really telling us much about the political climate.
Overall, the national political climate most definitely still favors Democrats, but probably by a smaller margin than the D+8.6 from last year's midterms.
It's definitely not all gloom and doom for Republicans, even though most news outlets will probably interpret it this way.
This post was edited by Black XistenZ on Nov 6 2019 05:35pm