Same bullshit excuses as 9 months ago.

Trump won the REP's a SCOTUS chair. If that doesn't win over the base, nothing will

Mitch McConnell gets equal billing for that.

could be 1-2 more as well before 2020.

He's just lucky his health care bill didn't pass or his chances would've been a fraction of what the are now.

But he still has by far the worst odds of any incumbent as far as I can tell, Republican Party has a 50% chance of winning in 2020 yet he is only at 22%. In other words, every other potential Republican candidate combined is more likely to win than him. Those numbers are usually very similar to each other (because the incumbent virtually always gets the nomination).

This post was edited by Voyaging on Apr 15 2017 10:43am

People didn't wait all day at rallies in the cold for Trump because of a SCOTUS seat. He didn't win Michigan and Wisconsin because of the Supreme Court vacancy. If he doesn't deliver economically he won't win in 2020.

You have to realize there's the Trump cult(you), and there's Trump voters. The cult will stay irregardless, the other voters will leave at some point.

This post was edited by IceMage on Apr 15 2017 12:19pm

thats a too simple view. trump won over the crucial swing voters in the midwest by his economic message. he won many non-voters and right-wing folks with his anti-immigration message. he won the evangelicals and the more traditional republican base with the supreme court argument and because those voters hated hillary even more than trump. and he won the election because he got in enough latino votes (same percentage as romney) despite all his anti-immigration rhetoric. and last but not least he won because clinton just couldnt inspire and active blacks and millenials to the same degree as obama.


if the economy keeps its upwards trajectory until 2020, I think that many midwestern moderates will vote for him again. the supreme court argument will again be valid in 2020, maybe even more so than last year. and I think those latinos who gave him his vote last year are already exactly those latinos who wont be alienated by his anti-immigration agenda, or even support this agenda.


essentially he just has to not fuck up, then his chances at reelection might be better than most of you think.

This post was edited by Black XistenZ on Apr 15 2017 12:31pm

He just needs enough anecdotal examples...the real numbers won't matter if his voters can just say "what about that one plant he visited that is staying now?". They are the same type of people who doubt global warming because it snows in the winter.



I agree with this a lot, and it also depends who the Dems run against him.

This post was edited by Skinned on Apr 15 2017 01:35pm

yes, indeed. if the dems can find a really strong candidate, trump will be in trouble no matter what. but if they choose a terrible candidate, say warren or #hillary2020, he'll have an easy time.

I don't agree with this at all... I think many voters naively voted for Trump because they actually believed he could bring jobs back. If the lives of those voters aren't actually changed, there won't be even half as much enthusiasm out there for Trump. Essentially it'll be the election map that I predicted in 2016.

This post was edited by IceMage on Apr 15 2017 01:45pm

If Warren runs, I think it'll be the most entertaining thing I've ever seen.

Trump aside, I cant think of anyone else even remotely as inspiring for blue collar workers