Quote (thesnipa @ 17 Jul 2018 14:46)
i assumed there were some large barriers to Scotland ever leaving after the failed vote. i suppose they'll want to see what brexit shapes up to be before much more planning given that 5+ year EU enrollment window.
its starting to look like Trump wants less trade, unless its people buying military complex items from us. It's working for the stock market at the moment, and the blowback has been targeted at lobbying key congresspeople. i'm starting to get the feeling that his long plan is to isolate our trade as much as possible, and the renegotiating of trade deals was a red herring with secondary importance. of course simpletons like Ghot still eat up the "this is the only way for true free trade" rhetoric because he doesnt understand even basic economics. but in reality Trump can inflate the economy and pump job numbers by taxing domestically produced products with a price hike for the consumer. how sustainable that is is questionable, and what sectors will be the first to fold is up for debate. what we can tell from how it's currently shaking out is that anti-free trade tariff campaigns are not nearly as destructive to economic growth as they seem on the face. however neither were subprime mortgages in the short term. my biggest worries are domestic steel prices being inflated for little to no job increases in the sector, solar energy job losses, and coal not paying any returns compared to how much we're paying to prop up the industry. domestic electronics, car manufacturing, and other machining based industries are thriving, that's either partly due to the moves or at the least not yet subject to those moves. on the topic of Japan-EU, i'm more concerned with what China does in it's trade deals moving forward.
i don't know, it really doesn't look like there is some kind of masterplan behind all of this, to me it seems trump just genuinely doesn't understand the whole deficit deal and thinks this is a legitimate way to fix it, assuming he can strongarm the rest of the world into submission. that so many of his advisors and donors seem rather uncomfortable with the situation suggests that this is not really a 37d backgammon move...
i agree that the immediate consequences might be relatively mild, not only because it's not an all out trade war with the whole world yet, but also because the american economy is just that strong. in the long run it will cost him though i think - many of his base might not be susceptible to reason, but when it hurts their finances (and it will, ofc not just for americans, but if trump escalates trade wars with several economic giants, it's likely it will hurt americans the most overall - despite the deficits) they might wake up after all and question his leadership - how long are they willing to pay subsidies, how long will they accept rising costs just for a vague promise that it's totally gonna work out in the end because the president claims he's a 'master negotiator'?
and if there is one resource trump values more than steel, coal, and aluminium, it's definitely supporters...